Summary of the day: Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk announced plans for unspecified counteroffensive actions in 2024, aiming to seize the initiative. Russian forces escalated tensions with larger drone and missile strikes, targeting areas including Odesa City during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Meanwhile, Kremlin officials persist in invoking nuclear threats to undermine Western support for Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s discussions with IAEA Director Rafael Grossi in Sochi focused on the security of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Additionally, Russian forces made confirmed advances in various regions, including near Kupyansk and Donetsk City, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
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Situation On The Ground And Air
Ukraine’s Ground Forces Commander Pavliuk outlined plans to stabilize the front line and prepare for counteroffensive actions in 2024. Recent withdrawals from key areas like Avdiivka were due to ammunition shortages exacerbated by delays in U.S. aid. Heavy battles persist in various regions as Russian troops aim to advance. Pavliuk described the situation as “difficult but controlled” and noted Russia’s efforts to occupy more territories before its presidential elections. Ukrainian forces aim to stabilize the front line, regroup, and prepare for counteroffensive actions. Russian losses are reported to be high, particularly near Chasiv Yar and Terny in Donetsk Oblast. Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi previously stated that Ukraine shifted to a defensive posture due to insufficient Western weaponry support.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced northeast of Kupyansk amid ongoing fighting along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Reports suggest Russian infantry advanced near Synkivka, while unconfirmed claims state they seized Ukrainian strongpoints near Terny. Positional fighting persisted in several areas, with Ukrainian estimates indicating roughly 100,000 Russian personnel concentrated in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions.
Russian forces advanced near Bakhmut amid ongoing positional fighting in the area. Reports indicate advances in the Bohdanivka-Kalynivka and Ivanivske-Stupochky directions. Fighting continues near Spirne, Ivanivske, and southwest of Bakhmut.
Positional engagements persisted near Avdiivka with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Fighting occurred northwest, west, and southwest of Avdiivka. Reports vary on Russian control of certain areas. Russian electronic warfare systems disrupted drone operations. Ukrainian forces reinforced defensive fortifications in the Avdiivka direction, including protection against shelling and drone strikes.
Russian forces marginally advanced west of Donetsk City amidst ongoing positional fighting in the area. Reports indicate advances in Heorhiivka and southern outskirts of Krasnohorivka, although not confirmed. Fighting continued near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka.
Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Prechystivka.
Russian forces advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid ongoing positional engagements. Reports indicate advances east of Robotyne and northwest of Verbove. Positional engagements continued in these areas. Russian forces operating in the region are reported to have deficiencies in drones and counter-battery capabilities.
Limited positional engagements persisted near Krynky in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast. Russian forces intensified shelling and munition strikes on Ukrainian positions in the Kherson direction.
Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk reported that Ukrainian forces have destroyed or damaged roughly one third of Russian Black Sea Fleet vessels since the start of Russia’s invasion. Pletenchuk stated that Ukrainian forces have struck 27 vessels, with 15 undergoing repairs. The Black Sea Fleet maintains a significant presence, including missile carriers, submarines, missile boats, and patrol ships, with several large amphibious landing ships in service.
Human Costs Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of seven people and injuries to seven others:
- A Russian attack on Odesa’s port killed five people. President Zelensky stated the missile strike occurred while hosting Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis. Mitsotakis witnessed the air raid siren during a port tour with Zelensky.
- Russian forces attacked Borova village in Kharkiv Oblast killing a 70-year-old man and injuring seven, including three children. T strike caused a fire, damaging property, and injuring civilians.
- Following a Russian missile attack on Kyiv on Feb. 7, the death toll has risen to six as a man succumbed to injuries in the hospital.
Ukraine’s military intelligence agency reported 27 wounded crew members from the destruction of the Russian patrol ship Sergey Kotov near Crimea. The ship was hit by Ukrainian naval drones. Seven Russian sailors were killed. Details about the remaining 52 crew members are being clarified.
A woman aiding Russian-organized elections in occupied Berdiansk was killed in a suspected car bombing. The woman, Olena Ilina, was a member of the Russian occupation’s election commission. Ilina died in the hospital from injuries sustained in the explosion.
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported that 1250 Russian forces suffered casualties over the last 24 hours.
Ukraine News
Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reportedly conducted a drone strike on the Mikhailovsky Mining and Processing Plant in Zheleznogorsk, Kursk Oblast. The plant, one of Russia’s largest iron ore mining enterprises, experienced a fire at a fuel depot. Meanwhile, Russian authorities allege Ukrainian drone attacks on Kursk, Voronezh, and Belgorod oblasts, with a warehouse fire reported in Kursk. No casualties were reported. Ukrainian media speculate on intelligence service involvement. Additionally, Russian officials claim to have downed three drones over Voronezh and one over Belgorod.
Russian forces launched drone and missile strikes targeting Ukraine, including Odesa City, during President Zelensky’s meeting with the Greek Prime Minister. The Ukrainian Air Force reported missiles and drones launched from occupied territories, with Ukrainian forces downing numerous drones. The strikes targeted port infrastructure in Odesa City during the visit, with a missile landing near a convoy transporting Zelensky and Mitsotakis. Russian Ministry of Defense claimed it targeted a hanger where Ukrainian forces prepared naval drones.
Polish farmers staged a general strike in Warsaw protesting Ukrainian agricultural imports and EU environmental policies. This follows a mass protest last week. Farmers demand changes to EU Green Deal policies and action against Ukrainian imports, which they see as unfair competition. The strike started in front of the Prime Minister’s office, causing traffic disruptions in Warsaw. Ukraine’s Prime Minister highlighted the economic impact on Poland, suggesting political motivations ahead of upcoming elections.
Ukraine’s Deputy Economy Minister Taras Kachka expressed openness to trade restrictions with the EU to ease tensions with Poland. He urged EU-wide bans on Russian grain imports and discussed potential caps on Ukrainian exports like eggs, poultry, and sugar. Kachka emphasized the need for coordinated action and accused Russia of fueling tensions at the Polish-Ukrainian border.
Ukraine’s Energy Minister Halushchenko stated that there will be no new deals allowing Russian gas to transit Ukraine after the current contract ends. Both Ukraine and the EU have expressed this stance. Despite efforts to reduce reliance on Russian gas, it remains vital for the EU. Halushchenko proposed storing European gas in Ukraine’s reservoirs instead. Russia previously reduced gas transit to Europe, but some countries remain heavily dependent. The EU is also considering limiting imports of Russian liquefied natural gas.
The SBU arrested a man attempting to flee to Transnistria after allegedly spying for Russia in the Ukrainian military. He’s accused of sharing military information via Telegram. The suspect, from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, graduated from Moscow State University in the 2000s but allegedly began espionage in 2023. Arrested near the Ukraine-Moldova border, he faces life imprisonment if convicted.
The District Court of the Russian Republic of Adygea approved the seizure of assets linked to Ukrainian oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky on March 5. The court alleges Kolomoisky’s ties to JKX Oil & Gas Limited, labeling it an “extremist group” anti-Russian in nature. Confiscated assets include shares in Yuzhgazenergi and Catering-Yug, properties in Moscow, and land plots in Russian oblasts. Kolomoisky is accused of supporting Ukraine’s post-2014 government and aiding the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Arrested in Ukraine in 2023 for alleged fraud and money laundering, his bail was initially set at $13.2 million and later reduced to $62.5 million. Kolomoisky, 61, has cited health issues in detention, unsuccessfully petitioning for house arrest.
Ukrainian army units reportedly assisted Sudan’s leader against rebel forces backed by the Wagner Group. Sudan sought Ukrainian aid amid a civil war in 2023. Ukrainian commandos allegedly aided in pushing rebels out of Khartoum and provided support to Sudanese forces. Ukraine’s involvement aims to counter Russia’s influence and reciprocates Sudan’s weapons support since 2022. The participation raises concerns about Ukraine’s international relations, including with the U.S., which discourages military support to Sudan.
Ukraine’s Allies
During Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ visit, Russia fired a missile at Odesa, Ukraine. President Zelensky confirmed casualties, with five reported dead. Mitsotakis emphasized the importance of European leaders experiencing the conflict firsthand. Later, they visited the site of a previous drone attack, where 12 civilians were killed. Mitsotakis highlighted Odesa’s Greek heritage and its significance as a trade hub. He pledged Greek support for Odesa’s reconstruction efforts.
The UK offers to lend Ukraine frozen Russian central bank assets for post-war reconstruction, pending Moscow’s reparations payment. The $300 billion immobilized in 2022 faces legal hurdles but urgency mounts due to delays in US military aid. UK suggests using assets as collateral, awaiting repayment. Plans aim to unify G7 and EU support; if unsuccessful, alternate allies will be sought. Estimated UK assets frozen at $32 billion. World Bank estimates Ukraine’s recovery costs at $486 billion. EU agrees to set aside Russian asset profits for Ukraine. Euroclear, holding $205 billion, is notably affected.
The U.S. State Department and German Marshall Fund launched the Ukraine Cities Partnership (UCP) for Sustainable Urban Recovery. The initiative aims to redesign and rebuild three Ukrainian cities post-war, focusing on sustainability. With an estimated $486 billion needed for reconstruction, the UCP will collaborate with experts, funders, and governments to secure resources. The project’s launch is set for June in Berlin, with a three-year timeline.
Latvia approved a ban on importing Russian and Belarusian agricultural products, effective from March 8. The move follows farmers’ protests and aims to sever economic ties with Russia. Similar tensions exist in Lithuania and Poland due to increased imports of Russian goods. Poland seeks EU sanctions on Russian, Belarusian, and Ukrainian agricultural products due to market destabilization.
Moldova’s intelligence agency warned of Russian efforts to destabilize the country ahead of its presidential election and an EU membership referendum. The agency cited strategies aimed at undermining European integration and influencing elections through pro-Russian political actors. The Kremlin allegedly seeks to compromise the referendum and presidential election, supporting candidates with ties to intelligence services and organized crime groups. Russia is also accused of stoking socio-political crises and inter-ethnic tensions in Transnistria and Gagauzia.
Moldova suspended the Cold War-era Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty. The treaty, signed by NATO and Warsaw Pact states in 1990, aimed to limit conventional weapons to counterbalance the Soviet Union. Moldovan officials cited a “fundamental change in circumstances” for the suspension. Russian officials criticized the decision, indicating Kremlin’s interest in maintaining influence over Moldova.
Russia News
Moscow rejects ICC arrest warrants for two Russian military commanders involved in Ukraine war crimes. Lieutenant General Kobylash and Admiral Sokolov are accused of directing attacks on civilians. Russia, as before, denies ICC jurisdiction. Previously, warrants targeted Putin and a Russian official overseeing child deportation. Russia left the ICC in 2016 after criticism of Crimea occupation. Zelensky sees the warrants as a step towards justice for Ukraine.
International Atomic Energy Agency Director Rafael Grossi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi to discuss the security of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). They exchanged views on nuclear safety and non-proliferation. The meeting was highlighted by the Kremlin and Russian state media to portray Russia as a responsible operator of the plant and seek international recognition for its control over the ZNPP and occupied Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with the governor of Gagauzia, Yevgenia Gutsul, on March 6 during the World Youth Festival in Sochi. They discussed regional and geopolitical issues, with Gutsul highlighting alleged mistreatment by Moldovan authorities towards Gagauzia. Putin pledged support for Gagauzia’s rights and positions. Gutsul also met with Russian officials to strengthen ties with Krasnodar Krai, Penza, and Pskov oblasts. This follows a request for defense from Transnistria, another pro-Russian Moldovan region, indicating Kremlin’s strategy to use Moldova’s pro-Russian areas for potential destabilization ahead of key events.
Armenia is making limited efforts to reduce its security cooperation with Russia. Armenian officials have informed Russia that only Armenian border guards should operate at Zvarnots International Airport in Yerevan. This follows a 1992 agreement allowing Russian border guards at the airport, which is now being revisited.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian lawmakers are considering a new bill to exempt individuals from criminal punishment if they sign a military contract during a military operation. The bill applies to suspects under investigation for lower-level crimes and current convicts. Some Russian courts have been offering convicts deferments on their sentences and expungement of criminal records if they sign contracts with the Russian military and go to the front.
A group of Indian nationals claimed Russian authorities coerced them to join the military and sent them to fight in Ukraine after two weeks of training. Social media footage shows them alleging they were detained in Belarus, then transferred to Russian authorities. Russian officials purportedly threatened them with imprisonment if they didn’t sign service contracts. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs is trying to secure the early discharge of 20 Indian nationals reportedly working as support staff for Russian forces.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited the Almaz-Antey defense industrial base enterprise. Footage posted by the Russian Ministry of Defense showed Shoigu inspecting the facility. He also visited the Avangard Moscow Machine-Building Plant to inspect anti-aircraft missile production.
TASS reported that Russia is developing an upgraded version of the “Bulat” drone detector. The new version, developed by St. Petersburg-based company 3mx, features an expanded frequency range and can link 30 sensors. Deliveries to the combat zone in Ukraine are expected to start in May 2024.
Russia’s Allies
Belarus strengthens security ties with Middle Eastern partners. Belarusian officials attended the World Police Summit in the UAE to learn about domestic security practices and shared Belarus’ experience. Additionally, Belarusian and Qatari military officials discussed bilateral cooperation at the Doha International Maritime Defense Exhibition and Conference.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Kremlin officials continue to mention nuclear threats to undermine Western support for Ukraine. They claim Russia would only use nuclear weapons if its existence was threatened, despite frequent threats from Russian officials. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned that American nuclear facilities in Europe could be targets. Russian Federation Council Chairperson suggests Russia may reconsider international agreements, including those related to nuclear security. Despite saber-rattling, the likelihood of Russian nuclear use remains low.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com