Summary of the day: Russian forces launched extensive missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure overnight, causing significant damage. Concurrently, Ukrainian authorities advanced legislatively with the adoption of a new mobilization law aimed at bolstering manpower for units on the frontline. In response to ongoing threats, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba highlighted the need for additional Patriot air defense systems to protect critical areas, including frontlines. On the military front, Russia made strategic advances near Kreminna, Chasiv Yar, and along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border. Additionally, international efforts saw Ukraine and Latvia signing a security agreement, while US and NATO forces, led by General Christopher Cavoli, are enhancing capabilities to counter Russian threats to European stability.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
General Christopher Cavoli of the US European Command and NATO has highlighted steps being taken to counteract Russia’s ongoing threat to global and European stability. In a briefing to the US Congress on April 10, he described Russia as a persistent threat, suggesting that Putin’s ambitions extend beyond Ukraine. To deter potential aggression, NATO and EUCOM are reinforcing their Eastern European presence, increasing military stockpiles, and upgrading infrastructure to enable quick troop deployments. They are also conducting extensive defense exercises. Cavoli warned of emerging strategic partnerships between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea that challenge international security norms, emphasizing the geopolitical nature of the conflict.
The U.S. is intensifying its cooperation with Moldova in response to potential Russian efforts to destabilize the country, according to Ned Price, deputy to the U.S. representative to the U.N. Relations between Moscow and Chisinau have been tense, especially since the conflict in Ukraine raised concerns about spillover into Moldova, particularly through the Russian-occupied territory of Transnistria. Moldova has accused Russia of election interference and other destabilization efforts. Price emphasized the U.S. commitment to supporting Moldova’s ability to identify and counteract Russian destabilization tactics. The U.S. has also provided military aid to Moldova and is conducting joint military exercises with Moldovan and Romanian troops to bolster regional stability and security.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has stressed the urgent need for more Patriot air defense systems to shield urban areas and the frontlines from Russian ballistic missile attacks. Ukraine is actively seeking seven such units to better protect its cities and potentially position one near the front. The country’s current, outdated Soviet-era defenses are inadequate against advanced missiles like Russia’s Kinzhal. The Russian military is targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and exploiting gaps in air defense, which also complicates Ukraine’s ability to both defend populated regions and support front-line defenses. Recent Russian gains and tactics suggest that these vulnerabilities have been instrumental in their slow advances on the battlefield, particularly noted in the February capture of Avdiivka.
General Christopher Cavoli, the top U.S. commander in Europe, reported to Congress that the Russian military has effectively replenished its forces following heavy losses in Ukraine, with numbers now exceeding those prior to the February 2022 invasion. Despite confirmed casualties of over 50,000 soldiers and significant losses of military equipment, Russia has rebuilt its army to 15% larger than at the start of the conflict, largely through a partial mobilization and by incorporating prisoners, migrants, and foreign nationals. Cavoli highlighted that Russia now maintains the same number of tanks and has increased its frontline troops. He emphasized the ongoing disparities in artillery firepower and warned of a potential worsening situation for Ukraine without sustained U.S. support, noting that Ukraine faces a critical shortage of ammunition and air defense missiles.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian troops made limited progress in the region near Kreminna, despite ongoing confrontations. Video evidence shows a slight Russian push east of Terny, to the west of Kreminna. However, Ukrainian officials report that Russian attacks near Terny were unsuccessful, and no offensive actions were taken towards Kupyansk. Russian forces are said to be active near Bilohorivka.
Fighting persisted in areas around Bakhmut with no significant shifts in the frontlines. Skirmishes took place northeast of Bakhmut, as well as east, southeast, and south of Siversk. Russian airborne units are active in the Soledar-Siversk area, and motorized rifle brigade forces are engaged in the Siversk region.
Russian troops advanced towards Chasiv Yar. Evidence from footage confirms Russian movement west of Ivanivske, east of Chasiv Yar, along a key highway. Reports also suggest ongoing Russian attacks in areas east and northeast of Chasiv Yar, with continued fighting in nearby locations.
Fighting persisted around Avdiivka with no verified changes in control. Russian sources allege gains near Avdiivka’s western side but lack visual confirmation. Clashes are reported in several localities northeast, west, and southwest of Avdiivka. Russian motorized rifle units remain active near Pervomaiske, southwest of Avdiivka.
There were reports of Russian military movements southwest of Donetsk City, although no frontline changes were confirmed. Claims of Russian advancements in Novomykhailivka lacked visual proof. Continued fighting was noted west and southwest of Donetsk, particularly near Pobieda, Krasnohorivka, and Heorhiivka. Russian artillery and motorized rifle units are active near Krasnohorivka.
Russian forces made slight advances near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border, particularly south of Urozhaine. Despite this, Ukrainian forces successfully repelled multiple Russian attacks near Staromayorske, indicating ongoing positional conflicts in the region.
Russian troops made minor advancements in western Zaporizhia Oblast, specifically within Robotyne. Continued fighting was reported in the vicinity of Robotyne and northwest of Verbove.
Russian forces made advances in east bank Kherson Oblast and on islands along the Dnipro River, specifically advancing in Krynky and beginning operations on Velykyi Potemkin Island. Positional fighting persisted in these areas, including near Krynky. Ukrainian forces continue to inflict significant losses on Russian assault groups in these engagements, with around 60 percent of Russian personnel typically wounded or killed in each encounter.
Russian officials reported that their forces thwarted attempts by Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups to infiltrate east bank Kherson Oblast and a drilling platform in the Black Sea. Specifically, the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) stated that their forces repelled an attempt on the Tendrivska Spit near Skadovsk and prevented a similar incursion on a drilling rig in the Shtormove gas field area.
Ukrainian Victims Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of 5 people and the injuries of 10 others:
- In Mykolaiv, Ukraine, a midday Russian missile strike resulted in four civilian deaths and injured five, including a teenage girl who did not require hospitalization. The Southern Defense Forces confirmed the casualties and damage to residential properties, vehicles, and an old industrial facility.
- A Russian shelling in Hulyaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulted in the injury of a 46-year-old woman.
- The number of fatalities from a Russian missile strike on Odesa Oblast on April 10 has increased to five following the death of an injured man in the hospital.
- In Sumy Oblast, Russian forces carried out attacks on border settlements and infrastructure, injuring four people, including a child. There were 36 attacks resulting in 157 explosions across several communities. Two of the injured, a 30-year-old man and a 71-year-old woman, were from Esman, while a 16-year-old boy and his 36-year-old mother were wounded in Vorozhba, where residential and power structures, as well as vehicles, were damaged. Additionally, a cogeneration plant in Sumy was hit with guided bombs, but no casualties were reported there.
Ukraine News
On April 10 to 11, Russian forces conducted extensive missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities in Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Lviv, Kharkiv, Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Sumy. The attacks included hypersonic Kinzhals and resulted in significant damage, most notably destroying the Trypillya Thermal Power Plant (TPP) in Kyiv, adding to the loss of the Zmiyivska TPP in Kharkiv and the Uglegorska TPP in Donetsk. These strikes have led to major power generation losses for companies like PJSC Centrenergo and DTEK and widespread electricity outages, leaving 200,000 Kharkiv residents without power. The Ukrainian Air Force and defense systems intercepted 57 of these attacks, which are part of ongoing Russian efforts that have severely cut Ukraine’s electricity production capacity. Additionally, the destruction of the Trypillya TPP, a main power source for Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Cherkasy oblasts, along with damage in other oblasts, caused widespread fires, including in the Trypillya plant’s turbine house. Despite the destruction, no employees were harmed. Local authorities are urging residents to prepare for potential shortages and store water and power. Emergency services are working to manage the aftermath.
Russian attacks have inflicted at least $2.9 billion in damages on the southern city of Mykolaiv, as reported by Mayor Oleksandr Senkevych at the International Mayors Summit in Moldova. This figure is rising due to ongoing bombardments. Overall, Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction costs are estimated at $486 billion over ten years, according to the World Bank. Denmark has committed 60% of its development aid to restoring Mykolaiv and its region.
Governor Oleh Syniehubov has announced that an evacuation order for families with children now includes 47 additional settlements near the frontline in Kharkiv Oblast, due to intensified Russian attacks that have heavily damaged the region’s energy infrastructure. The order affects areas within the Kharkiv, Bohodukhiv, and Izyum districts, where 182 children currently reside. Evacuation routes and temporary housing have been arranged. This mandate does not cover the city of Kharkiv itself, which has been heavily targeted but remains outside the evacuation zone. The Ukrainian military warns that any Russian advances on Kharkiv could prove costly, though such a development is not dismissed.
According to Freedom House’s Nations in Transit 2024 report, among 29 countries evaluated, Ukraine stands out for making strides toward democracy despite a regional downturn in democratic governance for the 20th consecutive year. While most in the “hybrid regime” category declined, Ukraine improved, contrasting with a trend where nations face pressure to align with either Euro-Atlantic democracies or authoritarian blocs. The report highlights the impact of armed conflicts, like those in Ukraine and Nagorno-Karabakh, as autocratic threats. It suggests that democracies must strengthen international alliances to counter authoritarian advances.
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry signed a new partnership agreement with the U.N.’s International Organization for Migration (IOM), focusing on enhancing cooperation in areas such as reconstruction, personal data protection, digitalization, cybersecurity, migration, and border policies. This agreement comes as the IOM reports that nearly a third of Ukraine’s population, over 14 million people, have been displaced since the 2022 Russian invasion, with about 4.5 million having returned to Ukraine. Additionally, 3.7 million remain internally displaced, and nearly 6.5 million are refugees outside Ukraine.
Dmytro Lazutkin, a renowned poet, TV host, and military officer, has been appointed as the spokesperson for Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, as confirmed in an April 10 interview with Ukrainska Pravda. Born in 1978 in Kyiv and a recipient of the prestigious Shevchenko National Prize, Lazutkin was initially mobilized into the 47th “Magura” Mechanized Brigade in summer 2023 to handle public relations. He later joined the 59th Motorized Brigade in February 2024, before being selected as a spokesperson on March 20.
Andrii Kovalchuk and Serhii Litvinov, heads of Southern and Eastern Operational Commands respectively, have been promoted and will transition to new roles. Major General Hennadii Shapovalov is now head of the Southern Operational Command, and Brigade General Volodymyr Shvediuk has taken over the Eastern Operational Command. Litvinov will serve as deputy head at Ukraine’s National Defense University, and Kovalchuk as head of the Odesa Military Academy. Kovalchuk, recognized for his contributions in past Ukrainian counteroffensives and a Hero of Ukraine, has a notable background in U.N. peacekeeping missions and combat operations. Litvinov has a history of military leadership roles and training coordination, including with U.S. forces.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine’s parliament has approved a new mobilization law aimed at addressing the shortfall of troops, which becomes effective with President Zelensky’s signature. The legislation confronts critical understaffing issues in the military, allowing the defense of only a portion of the assigned areas. It introduces an updated conscription framework to improve military effectiveness, with initiatives such as lowering the conscription age, starting an electronic conscription register, and eliminating the “partially eligible” status. The bill also grants self-discharge rights to disabled soldiers, requires health examinations, and sets penalties for draft evasion. Though demobilization topics will be discussed separately, this bill is crucial for strengthening defense and preparing for counteroffensives, underpinned by ongoing US and international support. It is a major element of Ukraine’s broader strategy to reinforce its military capabilities and maintain resilience against the Russian invasion, intending to enlist hundreds of thousands more soldiers.
Ukraine’s Allies
In Lithuania, President Zelensky of Ukraine and Latvia’s Foreign Minister Rinkevics signed a ten-year security agreement, cementing Latvia’s commitment to Ukraine’s defense. This accord encompasses a yearly aid package from Latvia worth 0.25% of its GDP from 2024 to 2026, dedicated to Ukraine’s reconstruction, infrastructure protection, mine clearance, drone technology, and cybersecurity initiatives. Additionally, for the year 2024, Latvia has pledged approximately 112 million euros in military aid to Ukraine. Zelensky thanked Latvia for its specific and consistent support, which is aligned with Ukraine’s aspirations to join the EU and NATO. Latvia’s contributions are part of its ongoing support to Ukraine since the intensification of the conflict, reflecting a significant amount of military aid already provided.
Lithuania has provided Ukraine with generators, field beds, anti-drone systems, and various military supplies, totaling 610 million euros in aid since 2022. In 2024 alone, Ukraine received nearly 84 million euros worth of assistance, including artillery shells, armored vehicles, ammunition, and winter clothing. The Lithuanian Defense Minister affirmed the country’s unwavering support and commitment to enhancing it, with Lithuania ranking high globally in defense aid to Ukraine relative to its GDP. Additionally, Lithuania has committed to a 200-million-euro long-term support package for Ukraine.
Polish President Andrzej Duda discussed with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky the possibility of transferring Soviet-made missiles to Ukraine to bolster its air defenses amidst intensified Russian attacks targeting energy and civilian infrastructures. Zelensky, who was in Vilnius for the Three Seas Summit, reiterated calls for more air defense systems, noting the daily missile strikes and the urgent need for support to match commitments. Duda also mentioned that Poland is deploying Patriot systems for its own defense, highlighting a recent breach of Polish airspace by Russian missiles and underscoring the ongoing regional security threat.
The European Parliament has withheld approval of the EU Council’s budget to pressure European leaders into providing additional Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine. This stance comes as Ukraine faces an urgent need for enhanced air defenses against intensified Russian attacks. Despite having 100 Patriot systems, EU states have yet to commit to sending the seven systems Ukraine is requesting. Ukraine, which says it needs 25 systems for full coverage, is initially aiming to secure seven to protect major cities and bolster defenses closer to combat zones.
The European Parliament has approved new regulations that enable EU member states to ban imports of Russian liquified natural gas (LNG). This move is part of the EU’s broader strategy to eliminate dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2027, despite some countries’ continued heavy reliance on Russian gas. The legislation specifically prevents Russian and Belarusian companies from booking gas infrastructure capacity in the EU, facilitating European companies’ exit from contracts with Russian suppliers without penalty. Several EU countries, including the U.K., Latvia, and Lithuania, have already ceased purchasing Russian LNG, with Finland planning to join them by 2025.
The Netherlands has committed an additional 400 million euros to Ukraine for 2024, bringing the total support for that year to over 2.4 billion euros, and has earmarked 1.5 billion euros for 2025. Outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte, known for actively backing Ukraine, including leading the fighter jet coalition and confirming the delivery of 24 F-16 jets, signed a decade-long security cooperation deal with Ukraine in March.
The U.S. has pledged $138 million for Ukraine’s air defense modernization, to support repairs and spare parts for Hawk missile systems. This assistance aims to sustain Ukraine’s defenses amidst increased Russian assaults on its infrastructure. However, Ukraine is experiencing a critical shortage of ammunition, and delays in the promised U.S. aid of $60 billion have negatively affected the conflict, notably contributing to the loss of Avdiivka. Although there’s been talk in Congress about accelerating aid, votes on further assistance may still be weeks out, with President Zelensky stressing the urgency of U.S. support for Ukraine’s war effort.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise indicated that the U.S. House has not agreed on a Ukraine aid package, with Speaker Mike Johnson discussing different terms from the Senate’s proposed $60 billion aid, including Republican stipulations. Details on potential compromises were not given. Johnson has suggested various conditions, such as lifting restrictions on gas exports and possibly providing aid as a loan. Disagreement within the Republican party, especially from far-right members, poses challenges to passing the aid. Johnson, under pressure, is also consulting with former President Trump regarding the package. Despite promises for a post-Easter vote on aid, this timing is now uncertain. President Zelensky has emphasized the critical need for U.S. aid, linking it to Ukraine’s capacity to continue its defense effectively.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that Ukraine’s strikes inside Russia are legitimate self-defense actions. He highlighted this during a press conference in Brussels, noting Ukraine’s efforts have significantly impacted Russia’s oil production and military capabilities, including damaging air bases and weapon manufacturing sites. Ukraine has effectively used unmanned and surface drones, notably damaging about one-third of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. A recent attack even set a Russian missile vessel in Kaliningrad on fire, indicating prolonged repair times ahead.
Over 35 representatives from President Zelensky’s United 24 initiative have urged the US Congress to increase support for Ukraine, highlighting the country’s urgent need for more resources to face a potential Russian offensive. The call for action, led by Yale historian Timothy Snyder and backed by figures like chef José Andrés, actor Mark Hamill, and the band Imagine Dragons, emphasizes the critical state of Ukraine’s defense and the broader threat to its citizens, including the Crimean Tatars. They noted Russia’s destruction of cities like Kharkiv and referenced a stalled $60 billion aid bill in the US House of Representatives, urging its passage. The US has already provided Ukraine with $47 billion in aid since February 2022.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, at a press conference with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, assured that Slovakia will not hinder Ukraine’s efforts to join the European Union. Despite his earlier skepticism and halting arms supplies to Ukraine, Fico reaffirmed his support for Ukraine’s EU aspirations, provided it meets all accession criteria. He also offered to assist with demining and expressed readiness for military cooperation on a commercial basis. This statement comes as EU talks are underway, with Ukraine hoping to start membership negotiations in the first half of 2024.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
In 2023, Russia reportedly sold $46 million worth of grain, totaling 212,000 tons, which was stolen from the occupied areas of the Zaporizhzhia region in Ukraine. This grain made its way to countries including Turkey, Libya, Israel, and several European nations, according to investigations by the Lviv-based NGL Media and Bihus.info. These investigations revealed the involvement of the Russian State Grain Operator and identified several cargo ships exporting the stolen grain from Mariupol. Additionally, Ukrainian individuals, including a former lawmaker, were implicated in the scheme to internationalize the stolen grain, which involved creating shell companies to hide its origin. The State Grain Operator, based in Mariupol, has been active in seizing Ukrainian farmland since shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director Rafael Grossi has warned of a “major escalation” in the risk to nuclear safety following recent attacks on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in Ukraine. During a meeting in Vienna, called after both Ukraine and Russia reported strikes on the plant, Grossi reported direct hits on April 7, marking the first confirmed attack since November 2022, and a drone strike on April 9. Russia blames Ukrainian drones, while Ukraine denies any involvement. Grossi stressed that attacks on nuclear facilities are highly dangerous, offering no political or military gain, and endanger everyone’s safety. He is scheduled to address these increased risks at a forthcoming UN Security Council meeting. The IAEA and Ukraine’s nuclear agency Energoatom emphasize that demilitarizing the area and returning control to Ukraine is critical to prevent further risks. The ZNPP, under Russian occupation since March 2022, has experienced operational disruptions due to the conflict and has been used by Russian forces for military purposes.
Russia News
Russian security forces carried out a counterterrorism operation in Kabardino-Balkaria, killing two individuals suspected of planning attacks. The operation, which took place in Nalchik and Cherkessk Raion, is part of Russia’s increased counterterrorism efforts, particularly in the North Caucasus region. This follows a similar operation in Dagestan on March 31, where three militants were detained. These actions are seen as Russia’s response to the threat of terrorism, including from jihadist groups, and come after the March 22 terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall. Russian officials have been targeting Central Asian migrants and local Muslim communities, alleging connections to terrorism, despite independent assessments attributing the Crocus City Hall attack solely to the Islamic State.
Igor Girkin, a former Russian intelligence officer also known as Strelkov, who claimed involvement in Crimea’s annexation and efforts to start uprisings in Donetsk and Luhansk, was sentenced to life for the MH17 flight downing in July 2014, killing 298 people. Arrested in July 2023 for criticizing Putin and Russian military strategies, he received a four-year sentence for “incitement of extremism.” Girkin now seeks release from prison to join Russia’s military operations in Ukraine, supported by an unnamed military unit’s acceptance to serve as a platoon commander. His conviction currently blocks him from military service, but his lawyer and wife argue for his release, citing his military experience and patriotism. An appeal hearing is set for May 15 to possibly overturn his conviction and allow his participation in the conflict.
Switzerland is set to host a global peace summit in June, focused on Ukraine’s war with Russia. While Russia has declined to attend, Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis emphasized the importance of Russia’s eventual involvement in the peace process. The summit aims to discuss Ukraine’s peace proposal and steps to reaffirm its sovereignty, without expecting an immediate peace deal. Swiss President Viola Amherd views the summit as an initial move towards peace, and Ukrainian officials have suggested they might invite Russian delegates if they show a genuine interest in ending the conflict. President Zelensky, however, has expressed skepticism about Russia’s participation due to ongoing hostilities.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Novaya Gazeta Europe reported that Russian courts have reduced sentences in about 57% of criminal cases against Russian veterans and active-duty servicemen, citing their military service in Ukraine as a factor. Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion in February 2022, at least 2,605 Russian servicemen have faced criminal charges, split nearly evenly between civil and military law violations, with the majority related to unauthorized leave and desertion. Additionally, a law signed by President Putin on March 23 exempts individuals from criminal liability if they are mobilized or sign a military service contract.
For the first time since Russia’s mobilization in September 2022, a Russian soldier has been charged with voluntarily surrendering, according to a report by Mediazona citing a Khabarovsk Krai court. The soldier, whose specific circumstances of surrender are unknown, faces charges of desertion and surrender under Russia’s harsher legal penalties instituted by President Vladimir Putin during the partial mobilization. These laws now stipulate that soldiers who surrender voluntarily could face three to ten years in prison. The total number of Russian soldiers who have surrendered is unclear, as is the number of Russian POWs held by Ukraine. Ukraine’s military intelligence operates a hotline, “I want to live,” to facilitate the surrender of Russian troops, with more than 220 soldiers reportedly using this service by December 2023, and another 1,000 requests pending.
Russian milbloggers recently showcased footage of the new “Courier” unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) being tested in Russia. This drone, reportedly tested in combat near Avdiivka, can be outfitted with various weapons, including grenade launchers, anti-tank, and electronic warfare systems. The “Courier” may have been previously observed in combat in the southeastern Berdychi and Bakhmut areas at the end of March.
Russia’s Allies
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss regional and international bilateral cooperation.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate reported that in 2023, the Kremlin allocated approximately 58 billion rubles ($621 million) to fund new domestic propaganda efforts. This initiative used private organizations not officially linked to the Russian government to produce “patriotic content” including blogs, films, TV series, and video games. These organizations aimed to boost public support for President Putin, justify Russia’s actions in Ukraine, and glorify the role of Russian military personnel in the conflict.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com