Summary of the day: Amidst escalating tensions, Ukrainian officials have emphasized the critical role of US security assistance in anticipation of intensified Russian offensive operations expected in the coming months. Russian forces have reportedly made strategic gains near Siversk, Avdiivka, and west of Donetsk City, while adapting drone strategies and redeploying experienced mercenaries to bolster their frontline offensives. Simultaneously, Russian media efforts and legal actions in occupied territories and neighboring countries are aimed at weakening opposition and fostering regional discord, all while increasing domestic enforcement against draft evasion.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Russian officials are reinforcing Iran’s rationale for its April 13 strikes on Israel, equating them to Israel’s earlier strike on IRGC officials in Damascus. Russia’s UN envoy argued the strikes were a response to UN inaction on Israel’s bombings in Syria and called for an Israeli ceasefire in Gaza. Russia advocates for a political solution in the Middle East and is likely to persist in framing Iran’s actions as justified to the international community.
Russian officials and pro-Kremlin media continue to portray military aid to Ukraine and NATO’s defensive actions as escalatory. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov insists the U.S. should significantly alter its Russia policy and return to strategic stability talks, though he views the prospects bleakly due to current U.S. actions. Another Deputy Foreign Minister, Alexander Grushko, claims that Finland and Sweden joining NATO are provocative moves requiring a Russian response. Meanwhile, Russian milbloggers describe NATO’s support for Ukraine as escalation and assert that Russia cannot accept a peace deal unless Ukraine remains “loyal” to Russia.
Russian media is spotlighting protests in Georgia over a proposed “foreign agent” law to stoke political unrest. The legislation, requiring NGOs with significant foreign funding to register as serving foreign interests, faced public outcry, and was temporarily withdrawn after its first reading in 2023. Despite the Kremlin dismissing claims that the law mirrors Russian policy, its state media’s focus on the discord aligns with Russia’s broader strategy of depicting neighboring countries as unstable.
A poll by Baltijos Tyrimai published by LRT on April 15 reveals that 70% of Lithuanians see Russia as a threat to their national security. Concerns have grown amidst Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with fears of potential aggression towards Baltic states. Notably, 29% believe Russia definitely poses a threat, while 41% think it rather does. Permanent residents of other nationalities showed differing opinions, with 50% disagreeing on Russia’s threat perception. The survey, conducted from March 15-25, interviewed 1,115 adults across Lithuania. Lithuania remains a significant supporter of Ukraine, providing substantial aid both bilaterally and through EU assistance programs.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian officials assert that US military aid is essential to counter the expected Russian offensives this late spring and summer. They highlight that despite their effective use of technology and precision artillery, Ukrainian forces are at a disadvantage due to material shortages, which could lead to significant Russian gains, particularly west of Bakhmut. Without continued Western support, Ukraine’s ability to resist the advancing Russian troops is severely compromised.
Ukraine faces intensified Russian attacks, aimed at wearing down its defenses and fracturing Western support. Estonian General Mots highlights the urgency for substantial aid to Ukraine, as current material shortages and uneven aid flow hinder defense efforts. Despite heavy losses, Russia remains undeterred in its campaign against Ukraine, with Western unity and consistent military support being crucial to Ukraine’s resistance and future security.
Russian and Ukrainian forces are engaged in a technological arms race on the battlefield, extensively using drones for reconnaissance and attacks, leading to heightened transparency of military movements. Due to the similar appearance of drones on both sides, identifying them has become challenging. Russians are targeting valuable Ukrainian drone operators and adapting their drone technology to evade Ukrainian electronic warfare systems. The increase in first-person view (FPV) drone usage is a notable change from the previous year, with Ukrainian forces struggling to down all the detected drones, some of which are booby-trapped.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense has announced the formation of a new operational strategic group named “Sever” (North), which was involved in recent operations against Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions. This addition brings Russia’s total to six operational strategic groups in Ukraine, alongside the existing “Tsentr” (Center), “Yug” (South), “Zapad” (West), “Vostok” (East), and “Dnepr” groups. The “Sever” group, reportedly formed from units previously tasked with border protection, includes substantial military assets such as up to 48,000 personnel, 350-360 tanks, 860 armored vehicles, nearly 950 artillery systems, and 110-120 multiple rocket launchers. It is commanded by Colonel-General Aleksandr Lapin, the current chief of staff of the Russian Ground Forces. The authenticity of this new group has not been independently verified outside of Russian official statements.
Ukrainian border guards successfully thwarted an infiltration attempt by a Russian reconnaissance team in Sumy Oblast, which shares borders with Russia’s Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod oblasts. This incident was part of a series of escalating assaults on the region, leading to civilian casualties. The Ukrainian guards engaged the Russian group as they tried to breach Sumy Oblast, compelling them to withdraw following a confrontation. Additionally, Russian forces carried out four attacks on border settlements in Sumy Oblast within the past day, targeting three communities.
Estonian Defense Forces’ Major General Enno Mõts has expressed concerns over potential Russian breakthroughs in Kharkiv, noting that while a rapid advance could be possible, maintaining control would demand significantly more troops than Russia currently has available. Mõts described Russia’s military approach in Ukraine as employing “amoeba tactics,” spreading smaller forces widely to exploit any openings. Despite recent intensifications in attacks on Kharkiv, capturing and holding the city remains a formidable challenge for Russian forces due to their limited troop strength and the resilience of Kharkiv. The city has withstood near-constant bombardment and propaganda efforts aimed at terrorizing the residents, with half of its pre-war population of 1.5 million having fled. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remains committed to defending Kharkiv, recognizing its strategic and symbolic importance, and insists that Ukraine is prepared to counter any large-scale Russian assaults.
Ukrainian forces carried out a series of attacks on military sites in occupied Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast, and Crimea. In Berdyansk, they struck a Russian military base at the Pivdenhydromash plant, with reports on the effectiveness of Russian air defenses against the attack being conflicted. Simultaneously, a missile attack was launched on a Russian command post in Crimea, where military intelligence sources indicated high-ranking officials were stationed. The Crimea attack, which targeted top Russian officers, coincided with reported explosions and a two-hour air raid alert in the region. The local partisan group Atesh asserted that Sevastopol’s 810th Marine Brigade base was hit, and there were audible sounds of Russian air defenses operating. Concurrently, the Telegram channel Crimean Wind noted Russian aircraft taking off amid the air raid alert. By the evening, there had been no comments from Russian proxies on the reported strike. These strikes are consistent with Ukraine’s escalated campaign against Russian military positions in Crimea, as noted by a Navy spokesperson on March 30, stating that Russia had withdrawn almost all of its major ships from Crimean ports following successful Ukrainian strikes.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
There were ongoing positional battles near Kreminna with no shifts in the frontline reported. These engagements occurred west of Kreminna near Terny and south near Bilohorivka.
Russian forces have made advances northeast of Bakhmut, particularly northwest of Vesele, as confirmed by recent geolocated footage. Additional positional battles are ongoing near Spirne and Vesele. Russian military units are also active in the vicinity of Soledar and Siversk.
Russian sources report that their forces made some movements near Chasiv Yar, although no confirmed frontline changes were observed. Claims include minor advances in the Kanal microraion and on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar. Despite the lack of visual evidence, continued positional battles are reported throughout the Chasiv Yar area. Ukrainian forces report that Russia is intensifying its efforts to seize Chasiv Yar, with significant guided bomb usage daily.
Over the weekend, intense fighting continued in the Chasiv Yar sector, eastern Ukraine, as Russian forces employed both traditional infantry tactics and unconventional methods such as using motorcycles and ATVs for rapid movement. Despite some Russian advances, Ukrainian forces, relying heavily on FPV drones funded by public donations, managed to hold key positions. These drones have become crucial in countering Russian armored vehicles and troop movements, often halting major assaults. Russian countermeasures include anti-drone technologies and jammers, but these have seen limited success.
Chasiv Yar, now a critical defensive position for Ukraine following the Russian capture of Bakhmut, has seen escalating combat as Russian commanders, under Kremlin orders, push to secure the area by May 9, a significant Russian public holiday. The Ukrainian military faces severe ammunition shortages, exacerbated by slow international aid and logistical challenges, which have also impacted their ability to counter Russian air strikes effectively. Ukrainian reliance on drones highlights both innovation and desperation in their defense strategy amidst a worsening ammunition crisis.
Russian forces are reported to have made advances near Avdiivka, with movements noted in Semenivka, west of Avdiivka, and southeast of Novobakhmutivka, toward Ocheretyne. Geolocated footage supports some of these claims, although no visual confirmation of all movements is available. Russian units are also reported to have reached areas near Novobakhmutivka and advanced south of Umanske and north of Berdychi. Positional engagements continue around Avdiivka, including near Novokalynove, Umanske, and Pervomaiske.
Recent advances have been confirmed by both Ukrainian and Russian forces around Donetsk City. Ukrainian troops recaptured positions in Novomykhailivka, southwest of the city, while Russian forces pushed forward in areas southeast of Krasnohorivka and northwest of Pobieda. Positional battles persist west and southwest of Donetsk City, particularly near Krasnohorivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka.
In the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border region, ongoing positional engagements were reported, with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian military claims of advances by Russian forces near Velyka Novosilka have not been visually confirmed. Fighting continued in the surrounding areas south and southwest of Velyka Novosilka, including Urozhaine and Staromayorske. Additionally, Russian air force units conducted bomb strikes in the Velyka Novosilka area.
Positional fighting persisted in western Zaporizhia Oblast with no confirmed frontline shifts. Clashes continued around Robotyne, particularly in the south of the town, northwest near Verbove, and southwest near Bilohirya.
Positional fighting persisted in the east bank of Kherson Oblast near Krynky.
Ukrainian Victims Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of 7 people and the injuries of at least 8 others:
- Russian forces targeted the village of Lukiantsi in Kharkiv Oblast, killing two and injuring at least four civilians with a guided aerial bomb. The attack hit an educational facility.
- Russian shelling hit Siversk in Donetsk Oblast, killing four people.
- Russian troops bombed a five-story building in the village of Ocheretyne, Donetsk Oblast, killing a 67-year-old woman and injuring two others.
- Russia attacked the Bakhmut and Kramatorsk districts, damaging over 20 houses, including two high-rise buildings in Sloviansk.
- Two energy workers and an elderly man were injured by explosive devices in Chernihiv and Kharkiv oblasts.
Ukraine News
Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported missile strikes by Russian forces in Kirovohrad Oblast, although the type of missiles was not specified. Additionally, the National Police of Ukraine reported that central Slovyansk in Donetsk Oblast was hit by a Russian “Grom-E1” missile, a hybrid air-to-surface missile.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appealed to Western allies for robust defense support like the aid Israel received during a recent Iranian attack. He highlighted the effective international collaboration that helped Israel intercept a significant number of Iranian missiles and drones. Zelensky stressed that similar strategies could protect Ukraine from ongoing Russian aggression, emphasizing that neither Ukraine nor Israel are NATO members, and such support does not necessitate triggering NATO’s Article 5. Amidst these calls, Zelensky acknowledged the receipt of additional air defense systems from allies but urged for more decisive actions to safeguard Ukrainian lives and infrastructure. He also reviewed military and intelligence reports, discussed defense strategies for the energy sector, and assessed the damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure following intensified Russian strikes.
UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron expressed concerns on LBC radio about the potential escalation of conflict if NATO forces were to directly engage Russian troops, such as by deploying Western fighter jets to defend Ukrainian airspace. He emphasized the need to avoid any direct military conflict between NATO and Russian forces, suggesting instead that Ukraine should receive enhanced support in the form of financial aid, weapons, and especially air defense systems.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba highlighted the critical need for more air defense systems, including Patriot missiles, to protect Ukraine against Russian aerial attacks. In a televised interview, he discussed the challenges in acquiring additional Patriot systems, which require U.S. approval even when sourced from other European countries. Kuleba suggested that positioning these systems in NATO countries could also benefit those nations by protecting them against Russian strikes. Active negotiations are underway to secure at least two more Patriot batteries and one SAMP/T system. Despite receiving some air defense systems from partners, Kuleba stressed that the support was still insufficient given the scale of the conflict. He urged for faster decisions from allies, especially after another missile strike in Ukraine.
The Washington Post reported that during their meeting at the Munich Security Conference in February, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris advised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky against attacking Russian oil refineries due to concerns over global energy prices and possible intensified Russian retaliation. Despite this, Ukraine proceeded with drone strikes on Russian oil facilities, hitting 12 refineries and causing a significant reduction in their capacity. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reiterated that the U.S. has not supported strikes outside Ukraine’s borders, while Zelensky affirmed Ukraine’s right to retaliate, highlighting his country’s sovereignty in defense decisions.
Ukraine’s Energoatom is constructing reactor units 5 and 6 at the Khmelnitsky Nuclear Power Plant using U.S. technology to safeguard against Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure. This move aims to bolster power supply and replace the Zaporizhzhia plant, currently under Russian control. With units 3 and 4 operational, Khmelnitsky’s capacity will surpass Zaporizhia’s, making it Europe’s largest nuclear facility. The first concrete cube for unit 5, utilizing American AR1000 technology, was laid on April 11. This collaboration with the U.S.’s Westinghouse Electric Company underscores a joint effort to enhance Ukraine’s energy security and counter Russian influence in the European nuclear energy market.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine’s defense budget for this year is $40 billion, with $6 billion earmarked for arms procurement, according to Strategic Industries Minister Oleksandr Kamyshin. The focus is on localizing weapons production, particularly drones, amid uncertainties over U.S. military aid. President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that domestic production of equipment and weapons tripled in 2023. Most of the budget, $30 billion, is allocated for military personnel, with additional funds for fuel and soldier uniforms. Kamyshin highlighted that the $6 billion is only a fraction of what could be utilized, given Ukraine’s production capacity. Efforts are underway to engage foreign partners to fund purchases of Ukrainian military items for later transfer to the armed forces. Ukraine also plans to meet its needs independently in certain areas like armored vehicles and artillery systems. Furthermore, recent agreements, including a significant one with the U.S., aim to enhance joint defense production and establish facilities in Ukraine for manufacturing and maintaining military equipment.
The Ukrainian defense industry is boosting its drone capabilities, with recent upgrades to the “Sea Baby” naval drones enabling them to carry nearly a ton of explosives and strike targets up to 1,000 km away, potentially impacting Russian naval assets across the Black Sea. Concurrently, Ukraine’s Deputy Commander-in-Chief, Colonel Andriy Lebedenko, announced the “Iron Range” initiative to accelerate weapon production and enhance testing conditions for new military technologies. Additionally, the “UA DroneID” technology, led by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense in collaboration with the Ministry of Digital Transformation, aims to streamline drone command and control, integrate with NATO forces, reduce friendly fire incidents, and optimize drone operations. Amid intensified attacks on Russian military assets, Ukrainian forces have disabled a significant portion of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, utilizing Sea Baby and Mamai drones to strike Russian warships and infrastructure. In response, Russian forces are fortifying defenses around key naval locations in Crimea.
Ukraine’s Allies
The European Commission approved the Ukraine Plan, outlining a reform and investment strategy for the next four years. Ukraine will receive support under the EU’s up to €50 billion Ukraine Facility, with two-thirds in loans and one-third in grants. The plan requires Ukraine to implement various reforms to access the funds. Once the Council Implementing Decision is adopted by member states, up to €1.89 billion in pre-financing will be disbursed, followed by regular payments from 2024 to 2027 based on reform implementation. The plan covers 69 reforms and 10 investments across 15 areas, aiming to support Ukraine’s recovery, reconstruction, and democratic mechanisms amidst Russia’s invasion.
Several countries, including Germany, the Netherlands, Canada, and Lithuania, are contributing to enhancing Ukraine’s drone capabilities within the Ukrainian Drone Coalition. Lithuania has pledged three million euros to support the production of first-person view drones, while the Netherlands, Denmark, and Germany are jointly funding the acquisition of Heidrun RQ-35 reconnaissance drones with a total value of 200 million euros. Additionally, Germany will provide VECTOR 211 reconnaissance drones, and Canada plans to transfer 450 SkyRanger drones to Ukraine by summer 2024. Led by the UK and Latvia, the coalition aims to bolster Ukraine’s drone capabilities, with seven countries participating in the initiative. Ukraine emphasizes the critical need for tools to defend against ongoing attacks on civilian infrastructure, while Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds underscores the coalition’s openness to new members and Latvia’s commitment to supporting Ukraine’s defense efforts.
Czech-led artillery initiative secures 180,000 ammunition rounds for Ukraine, with delivery planned in coming months, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala announced. The initiative aims to address critical ammunition shortages in Ukraine. Several countries contribute funds, including Denmark and the Netherlands, with 20 others pledging assistance. The effort seeks to establish a sustainable ammunition supply mechanism to support Ukraine’s defense. The initiative may ultimately deliver up to 1.5 million rounds, according to Czech officials.
Ukraine continues to receive significant military and humanitarian aid from its European partners. The Netherlands has pledged an additional €4.4 billion for Ukrainian support from 2024 to 2026. Lithuania recently delivered a new aid package including anti-drone systems, generators, and cots, and has committed €400,000 to assist in rehabilitating Ukrainian servicemen. Montenegro has also joined the EU mission to train Ukrainian forces. In the UK, BAE Systems will maintain and repair Ukrainian L119 howitzers, further supported by a new cooperation agreement for defense procurement between the UK and Ukraine.
The Netherlands pledges 4.4 billion euros ($4.7 billion) to support Ukraine until 2026, focusing on military and humanitarian aid. This includes an additional 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) for military assistance and 400 million euros ($425 million) for reconstruction. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte reaffirmed support, including delivering 24 F-16 jets to Ukraine, during a recent call with President Volodymyr Zelensky.
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson plans separate votes this week for new aid packages for Israel and Ukraine amid Republican resistance. The move aims to gather support for both allies following Iran’s recent attack on Israel. Marjorie Taylor Greene threatens to challenge aid to Ukraine.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Ukraine’s U.N. representative accused Russia of orchestrating drone attacks on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on April 7 and 9, labeling them as a “false flag operation.” The Security Council convened to discuss heightened nuclear risks at ZNPP, occupied by Russia since March 2022. Ukraine refuted Russian claims of Ukrainian involvement, emphasizing the need to liberate the plant for safety. While the IAEA confirmed reactor shutdowns, they warned of looming disaster and urged an end to “reckless attacks.”
The leader of occupied Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, issued a decree limiting migrant labor, challenging the Kremlin’s plans to address labor shortages. This rule prohibits hiring migrants in 35 job sectors but still allows their employment in construction, potentially to aid Russian military infrastructure efforts. Despite past practices of bringing migrants into occupied areas for repopulation and reconstruction, this move seems to cater to nationalist sentiments by prioritizing the regulation of migrant workers, diverging from Putin’s recent indications of the need for foreign labor to combat demographic challenges in Russia.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian officials are reportedly planning to move some military units from Africa to Belgorod Oblast near the Ukrainian border. This move follows apparent dissatisfaction with the development of the Russia-led Africa Corps. The specifics of the redeployment, including whether it affects all or part of the Corps, remain unclear. This strategy coincides with ongoing recruitment efforts, previously intended for African operations, now seemingly redirected to the Ukrainian frontier.
Russian prosecution rates for men evading compulsory military service have surged since fall 2022. According to the independent Russian outlet Mediazona, around 34 men are sentenced daily for this offense. In March 2024 alone, 700 cases were examined, indicating a peak in evasion rates. Since the Kremlin’s partial mobilization announcement in September 2022, courts have dealt with approximately 7,300 cases of servicemen going absent without leave.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on April 14 that Russian defense industries are circumventing international sanctions to import foreign electronics and chips for missiles and drones. These components are routed through neighboring countries to Russia. BBC News Russian Service also revealed that Russian military shipyards under sanctions are acquiring European components from Croatian and Italian companies through intermediaries. This includes a Croatian firm supplying deck equipment to sanctioned shipyards in St. Petersburg and Tatarstan, as well as Russian acquisitions of ship cranes and parts from an Italian company.
A Russian military blogger reported that the Russian military has started supplying BMR-3MA Vepr mine-clearing vehicles, equipped with the latest TMT-S mine-clearing trawls, to its forces in Ukraine. This equipment is expected to accelerate the clearance of minefields and enhance the pace of Russian advances.
Russia’s Allies
Russia and Belarus have agreed to enhance their collaboration in aircraft production, potentially increasing their capacity to produce combat aircraft for use in Ukraine. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced on April 15, after a meeting with Belarusian Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko, that they have signed an agreement for the joint production of Osvey light multipurpose aircraft under the Union State framework.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
The Ukrainian Center for Disinformation identified over 60 X (formerly Twitter) accounts that are disseminating pro-Russian propaganda. This list includes accounts belonging to Kremlin officials, Russian state media, and other propagandist entities.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com