Summary of the day: Ukrainian forces targeted Russian military assets in occupied Crimea and other Russian regions on April 16 and 17, indicating an escalation in their military operations. Meanwhile, amidst tensions with Armenia, Russian peacekeeping forces started withdrawing from Nagorno-Karabakh, pointing to shifting alliances in the region. In domestic developments, the Georgian parliament moved towards adopting a controversial “foreign agents” law, mirroring Russian legislation. Concurrently, the US is bolstering its support for Ukraine, with President Biden highlighting the growing threat from Russia and its allies, and the House of Representatives preparing a significant financial aid package for Ukraine.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
The Washington Post reported on a classified Russian policy document which details how the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs aims to identify and exploit Western vulnerabilities, particularly through its actions in Ukraine. The strategy is designed to undermine the West’s influence and establish Russia’s dominance in global affairs. It envisions a reshaped world order led by a coalition of post-Soviet and non-Western states, signaling the Kremlin’s aspiration to represent a “world majority” in opposition to the West. According to the document, military, economic, and psychological information campaigns are to be directed against a coalition spearheaded by the United States. While the document indicates a forceful approach, it also states that Russia harbors no ill will towards the West. This assertion comes amidst President Vladimir Putin’s declaration of willingness to deploy nuclear weapons should the U.S. engage militarily in Ukraine.
Belgium and Czechia urged the EU to enact stricter measures against Russia for disinformation efforts, sharing findings from investigations into Russian influence activities. They exposed a network spreading Kremlin narratives, notably through the Voice of Europe website, and attempting to sway European Parliament elections. The Belgian intelligence has also uncovered similar interference within Belgium. They aim to discuss this at the European Council meeting and propose extended powers for the European Public Prosecutor’s Office and the European Anti-Fraud Office to combat such activities.
The Kremlin has begun pulling Russian peacekeepers from Nagorno-Karabakh, deviating from a 2020 ceasefire agreement. This withdrawal follows Azerbaijan’s capture of the region, an action that Russian forces did not prevent, and it comes amid criticisms of Armenia’s conflict response from Russian commentators. Armenia, attributing the region’s loss to Russian inaction, has halted participation in the CSTO and is considering EU membership. The pullout of Russian troops, who were deployed after 2020’s escalations, is not seen as affecting Russia’s Ukrainian operations. Armenia’s call for the removal of Russian forces reflects growing tensions and a reassessment of its security alliances.
The Georgian parliament passed a first reading of a “foreign agents” law, prompting criticism from the country’s president and the EU for its similarity to Russian legislation and potential impact on Georgia’s EU aspirations. Despite vows to veto by the president and warnings of adverse effects on EU relations, the prime minister insists on adopting the law. Russian media is highlighting the bill and protests, with Kremlin officials denying interference but suggesting Western involvement in the opposition to the bill.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian forces, particularly well-equipped units from the Northern Grouping, are concentrated near Belgorod Oblast, indicating potential preparation for future offensives towards Kharkiv City.
Ukrainian forces attacked a Russian airfield in Crimea, reportedly destroying key military assets including a S-400 missile system. The strike, part of ongoing conflicts, targeted areas with significant military equipment but the full extent of the damage remains unconfirmed.
Colonel Serhii Pakhomov of the Ukrainian military stated in a Reuters interview that Russian forces have ramped up the use of banned riot control gas in the conflict, violating international treaties. Ukraine has documented 900 instances in six months, with a total of 1,400 since the conflict began. The Russian grenades contain CS, CN, and other gases, causing non-lethal but incapacitating effects. About 500 Ukrainian soldiers needed medical treatment after gas exposure, with one fatality reported. Ukraine is responding by providing gas masks and training to its troops.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
There were no changes to the frontlines in the ongoing battles along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, including areas southwest of Svatove and west of Kreminna.
Russian troops engaged in offensive operations near Bakhmut without territorial gains. Clashes occurred east, southeast, and south of Siversk. Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed Russian tanks and infantry vehicles during defensive actions near Siversk, suggesting a possible mechanized assault by Russia in the region, though no official Ukrainian confirmation of such assaults has been observed.
Russian forces are pressing offensives around Chasiv Yar, with claims of advancing in several areas though lacking visual confirmation. Ukrainian officials report Russian tactics include using small assault groups and ATVs for rapid infantry movement. Ukrainian defenders are utilizing drones to target Russian equipment, claiming to disable a significant portion of Russian hardware in assaults. Multiple Russian military units are identified as participating in these operations.
Russian forces have made advances in areas around Avdiivka, with footage indicating movement along key railway lines and near several towns, though these claims lack independent confirmation. Continuous fighting has been reported northwest, west, and southwest of Avdiivka. Russian forces are engaged in operations near Pervomaiske.
Russian troops have made progress west and southwest of Donetsk City, with movements near a brick factory in Krasnohorivka and some ground gained in Novomykhailivka, according to footage and claims not yet independently verified. Skirmishes persist in areas surrounding Donetsk City, particularly near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, Pobieda, and Vodyane.
Ongoing positional battles were reported in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, with Russian claims of capturing a stronghold near Volodymyrivka and advancing near Mykilske and Urozhaine, though these claims lack confirmation. Fighting also persisted near Staromayorske.
There were ongoing positional engagements in western Zaporizhia Oblast without any confirmed changes to the frontline, particularly near Robotyne, Verbove, and Mala Tokmachka. Dmitry Rogozin, a former Russian space agency head, claimed that Russian forces have deployed electronic warfare systems capable of disrupting Ukrainian drones in the area.
There were ongoing positional engagements in east bank Kherson Oblast, particularly near Krynky, with no confirmed changes to the frontline. The head of Kherson Oblast’s occupation administration, Vladimir Saldo, reported that Russian forces have bolstered their electronic warfare and mobile air defense systems in the area to counteract rising Ukrainian drone strikes.
Ukrainian Victims Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the deaths of at least 19 people and the injuries of at least 64 people:
- Russian missile attacks struck Chernihiv, Ukraine, on Wednesday, killing at least 17 people and injuring 60, including three children. The attacks targeted the city center, impacting civil infrastructure and causing significant damage. Emergency services and local officials are coordinating relief efforts and have called for blood donations due to the extensive damage.
- Russian air strikes on a village school in Lukyantsi, Kharkiv Region, resulted in six civilian casualties, including two deaths. The victims were aged 65 and 63. Kharkiv, located just 40 km from the Russian border, faces daily aerial attacks, severely damaging its power infrastructure. Consequently, the regional government has implemented rolling blackouts, with a new schedule set for April 17-20 to manage the reduced power supply.
The aftermath of Russia’s missile attack on Chernihiv
Ukraine News
Russian missile attacks on Chernihiv City and Odesa Oblast have hit civilian and key infrastructure, with Iskander-M missiles reportedly being used in Chernihiv. The Mayor of Kharkiv reports Russian tactics are also disrupting the city’s power supply, causing blackouts for the 1.3 million residents, and possibly pressuring for evacuations. Amidst these strikes, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stressed the critical need for air defense systems. He referenced the effectiveness of Israel’s missile defense after it intercepted most of the 170 drones and 150 missiles during Iran’s recent assault. Kuleba criticized the delay in U.S. aid and applauded Germany’s provision of an additional Patriot system, indicating plans to seek further G7 support for Ukraine’s air defense.
Police stand in front infrastructure destroyed as a result of a missile attack on Chernihiv
President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia should suffer significant consequences for its actions in Ukraine and that frozen Russian assets should be used to support Ukraine’s defense. At a World Bank event, Zelensky highlighted the need for financial support, justice, and reconstruction plans. He noted that around $300 billion of Russian assets are frozen, mainly in Belgium, and there is debate among Western allies on how to utilize these funds. The U.S. supports directing them to Kyiv, while European countries are cautious due to potential economic and legal issues. The EU is considering using profits from these assets for defense aid to Ukraine. Recently, the Council of Europe endorsed a resolution to seize Russian assets for Ukraine’s rebuilding.
Kharkiv’s Mayor Ihor Terekhov warned that without air defense aid, Kharkiv could face devastation like Aleppo’s in the Syrian Civil War. Recent Russian attacks have damaged the city’s infrastructure and threatened civilian lives. Terekhov urged the U.S. to expedite the $60 billion aid package for Ukraine to supply necessary defenses. The cost of damages in Kharkiv has surpassed $10 billion. Reports suggest Russia’s strategy is to render Kharkiv uninhabitable, with all electrical substations already destroyed. Air defense stocks are critically low throughout Ukraine, exemplified by the destruction of the Trypillya Power Plant due to a lack of defensive missiles.
Ukraine’s Culture Ministry has delisted the Peoples’ Friendship Arch from its monuments register due to its Soviet symbolism and potential threat to national security. This move could lead to the monument’s dismantling. The Arch, established in 1982, had already been renamed to The Arch of Freedom of the Ukrainian People and a Soviet statue beneath it was removed in 2022. The monument’s removal had been considered previously but was blocked due to its protected status. The decommunization law passed in 2015 has resulted in the removal or alteration of many Soviet-era symbols across Ukraine. Furthermore, a 2023 law prohibits naming places after Russian figures or events linked to Russian aggression.
Ukraine’s Allies
NATO will meet on April 19 to discuss providing Ukraine with more air defense systems after a request from President Zelensky, amid escalating Russian airstrikes.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has proposed purchasing Patriot air defense systems from other countries to help Ukraine defend against Russia’s intensified aerial attacks. During an EU summit, Rutte mentioned that the Netherlands is willing and financially ready to buy systems from nations reluctant to supply them directly. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also emphasized the availability of air defenses and the need to support Ukraine more substantially. The call to action follows a deadly Russian missile strike on Chernihiv, alongside previous attacks that have heavily damaged Ukraine’s power infrastructure. Ukraine’s President Zelensky has stated a need for 25 Patriot systems, while the focus currently is on acquiring seven to safeguard major cities.
Denmark announced a $313 million military aid package for Ukraine, marking its 17th contribution since the Russian invasion began. This latest support focuses on enhancing Ukraine’s maritime capabilities, drones, and missile parts, in partnership with the Netherlands and the Czech Republic. Additionally, $28.4 million is earmarked for Ukraine’s defense industry. Denmark’s Defense Minister underscored the potential for impactful cooperation. Denmark is also assisting Ukraine’s energy sector with $5.8 million due to recent Russian attacks. Ranking as the fourth-largest military aid donor, Denmark’s commitment represents 2.3% of its GDP, the second-highest in terms of GDP percentage.
President Joe Biden highlighted the escalating threat from Russia and its allies to NATO, emphasizing the need for urgent US security assistance to Ukraine. In an op-ed, he cited military support from China, Iran, and North Korea to Russia’s efforts in Ukraine and warned of the risk of Russian advancement towards NATO territories if Ukraine falls. Biden argues that bolstering Ukraine is crucial to deterring Russian aggression and protecting NATO members, potentially averting direct conflict with the alliance.
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson plans to hold a vote on April 20 on foreign aid bills for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan, moving ahead despite some Republican objections. While the Senate previously passed a $95 billion aid package, the House must address internal disputes and may need Democratic votes. The proposed Ukraine aid bill lists $61 billion for defense and maintenance and ensures the availability of funds until September 2025. Simultaneously, a separate proposed bill details $60 billion for Ukraine, including $23.2 billion for Defense Department supplies, $13.8 billion for arms purchases, and $11.3 billion for military support operations, benefiting American companies and allies.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
The Ukrainian NGO Save Ukraine has successfully rescued six children and their families from Russian-occupied areas, bringing the total number of children rescued to 290. The individuals returned include Marina and her young daughter, as well as Olena and her sons from an occupied village. Ukrainians under occupation face enforced Russian citizenship and education. Save Ukraine credits partners We Are All Ukrainians and BF Humanity for their help. Out of over 19,500 children reported abducted or displaced by Russia, 388 have been returned to Ukraine.
Russia News
Ukrainian military intelligence has launched strikes on Russian aviation assets in Mordovia, Tatarstan, and Samara Oblast, including a significant drone strike on the 29B6 “Container” radar facility in Kovylkino, capable of long-range detection. Furthermore, a bomber aircraft factory in Tatarstan, which manufactures Tu-22M and Tu-160M bombers used in attacks against Ukraine, was also targeted. Russian defense systems have downed some Ukrainian drones, and flight restrictions were put in place at nearby airports. The extent of the damage from these attacks remains unknown, but they are part of Ukraine’s strategy to weaken Russian military operations. Despite the increased frequency of such attacks deep into Russian territory, the types of drones utilized by Ukraine in the recent attack have not been disclosed.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian Orthodox Church (ROC), aligned with the Kremlin, is developing a training course for its clergy to serve in combat zones in Ukraine. Announced on April 16, this initiative was discussed by Patriarch Kirill and the Supreme Church Council, focusing on preparing clergy for the rigors of combat and providing spiritual care to military personnel. The course will equip priests to handle the challenges of war zones and support the Kremlin’s efforts in Ukraine.
A Russian insider has revealed that Russian politicians, public figures, and their families are using special military units like “BARS-Kaskad” to claim combat status and benefits without engaging in frontline combat. This strategy, initiated in March 2023, allows them to avoid the dangers of actual warfare while gaining monetary rewards. Among those implicated is the son of a high-ranking Russian intelligence officer, who reportedly serves in a similar unit called “BARS-25 Anvar.” This practice aims to address domestic criticism over mobilization by giving the appearance of participation in the conflict in Ukraine.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited the “Patriot” convention center in Moscow Oblast, where he reviewed advancements in robotics, weapons systems, and military logistics. During his visit, Shoigu observed demonstrations of robotic vehicles engaged in supply transport, simulated evacuations, and weapon operations. His frequent visits to defense sites aim to showcase the modernization and capabilities of the Russian armed forces.
The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Russian authorities are allegedly forcing high school students in Tatarstan to produce Shahed drones at Alabuga Polytechnical College. According to documents obtained by Ukrainian hackers, 1,209 students, including many minors and a Ukrainian girl forcibly deported from Ukraine, are enrolled in industrial internships involved in this production, referred to under the code name “boat” project.
Russian forces are adapting their armored vehicles to defend against Ukrainian drone strikes. Recent images and footage show modifications like thin metal “pins” on a BMP-1 infantry vehicle and heavy anti-drone armor plating, along with electronic warfare systems, on what are termed “turtle tanks” from the 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade operating in Donetsk Oblast. These enhancements are aimed at increasing the vehicles’ survivability on the battlefield.
Russian forces are increasingly using robotic technology in combat, as evidenced by recent footage showing the 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment deploying a radio-controlled robotic car west of Donetsk City. This robotic vehicle is designed to evacuate wounded personnel, can travel up to 12 kilometers, carry up to 150 kilograms, and move at a speed of 20 kilometers per hour.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
The Kremlin is reportedly looking to elevate Telegram as a key platform for influencing Western audiences. In an interview on April 16, Telegram founder Pavel Durov presented the app as an unbiased alternative to U.S.-based social media, asserting its independence from the Kremlin and emphasizing its commitment to privacy and free speech. Following the interview, Russian state media and officials used Durov’s statements to promote Telegram as censorship-resistant, countering Western digital control while subtly pressuring Durov to comply with Russian regulatory demands. The Kremlin has strategically utilized Telegram for broadening its international influence since lifting a previous ban on the platform in 2020.
Ukraine’s military intelligence warns of a Russian disinformation campaign aimed at undermining Ukraine’s military and Western support. The Kremlin plans to falsely accuse Ukrainian forces of using U.S.-supplied weapons in Sudan, spreading doctored images to Russian and Libyan media. This strategy seeks to question Ukraine’s use of Western arms and fuel internal discord by suggesting Ukrainian involvement in external conflicts. Meanwhile, Russia’s Wagner Group operates in Africa, where Moscow’s influence is said to be waning. The Wall Street Journal reported that Ukrainian military teams assisted Sudan’s leader against Wagner-backed rebels. Ukraine maintains its actions are lawful and denies any illicit activities, upholding international law and the UN Charter.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com