Summary of the day: Russian forces have made marginal advances near Kupyansk, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City as part of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Despite these movements, Ukrainian officials maintain that Russia’s strategic personnel reserves are not expected to increase significantly, limiting their ability to conduct large-scale offensive operations. The focus for Russia remains on seizing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in their anticipated summer 2024 offensive. Concurrently, international support for Ukraine continues, with the first deliveries of resumed US military assistance arriving, although it will take time for these supplies to reach the front lines. Amidst these developments, both Russian and Ukrainian officials have noted that victory through attritional warfare alone is unlikely, suggesting a protracted conflict ahead.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
The Kremlin criticized recent statements by French President Emmanuel Macron suggesting that sending Western troops to Ukraine could be considered if Russian forces breached Ukrainian lines and Kyiv requested assistance. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov described the remarks as “very dangerous” and indicative of a potential direct NATO involvement in the conflict. Additionally, comments by British Foreign Secretary David Cameron supporting Ukraine’s right to strike targets inside Russia were also labeled as “dangerous” and “escalatory” by Peskov. These developments have heightened Moscow’s concerns about the escalating rhetoric and its implications for European security.
NATO has expressed serious concerns over Russia’s “malign activities,” which include sabotage, disinformation, violent acts, and cyberattacks, threatening the security of its member states. These hybrid operations, carried out directly or through proxies, have led to investigations and charges in several European countries, including Czechia, Estonia, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and the UK. Specific incidents involve an alleged arson plot in London and a scheme to infiltrate European institutions from the Czech Republic. The response from NATO involves enhancing resilience and defensive capabilities to counter these threats and continue supporting Ukraine. Notably, the Norwegian Police have identified potentially dangerous Russian intelligence activities in Vestland County, and Germany has reacted to Russian cyberattacks on its political and industrial sectors by summoning Russia’s Charge d’Affaires. These actions underline the persistent security challenges NATO faces due to Russian tactics and emphasize the Alliance’s commitment to bolstering defenses and urging Russia to adhere to international obligations.
Germany accuses Russian-backed hackers of targeting the German Social Democratic Party last year. The attack worsened Germany-Russia relations amid German support for Ukraine. Foreign Minister Baerbock attributes the attack to a Russian military intelligence group, APT28, calling it state-sponsored. This marks a pattern, with Russia’s GRU linked to cyberattacks in Ukraine. Australia stands with Germany against cyber aggression.
Kremlin officials, including spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova, accused the UK of escalating tensions and threatening retaliatory actions against Western nations if Ukrainian strikes affect key Russian infrastructures like the Kerch Strait Bridge. Despite these threats, the likelihood of Russia engaging in open conflict with NATO remains low. Cameron’s statements and actions, including the provision of long-range weapons, aim to counter Russian coercion and support Ukraine’s defense capabilities against the ongoing invasion.
The Latvian army is digging an anti-tank ditch near the border with Russia to fortify defenses. Concerns about Russian aggression have led to plans for defensive lines and strongholds along the border. The ditch, part of the first defensive line, aims to prevent vehicle movement, including tanks. Latvia’s strategy includes both artificial and natural obstacles. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania plan to strengthen their eastern border. The U.S. allocated $228 million in military aid to the Baltic states.
Tbilisi, Georgia, has experienced significant protests against a proposed law that would require media and organizations receiving foreign funds to register as entities serving foreign interests, reflecting the city’s pro-European stance similar to past movements in Kyiv and Belarus. These large-scale demonstrations, which involve clashes with security forces, echo Ukraine’s and Belarus’s past protests against pro-Russian governmental actions. Amidst this, criticism has mounted against Ukraine’s President Zelensky for his silence on these issues, which contrasts with his role as a defender of democratic values against Russian aggression. Protesters in Tbilisi, including Giorgi Loladze from Kutaisi, have voiced strong opposition to their government’s alignment with Kremlin policies, chanting “No to Russia” and rejecting any governmental actions that align with Russian interests. This bill, supported by Georgia’s Kremlin-friendly legislative majority, has also drawn criticism from Western governments and organizations, particularly concerning the suppression of protester rights, a concern that has been underscored by the UN human rights chief.
Reuters reported that Russian military personnel are operating at a Nigerien military base also used by US forces, located at Airbase 101 near Niamey. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin noted that the Russians are in a separate compound with no access to US areas or equipment, and he does not see an immediate threat to US force protection. The presence of Russian forces, confirmed by a senior US defense official, is manageable for now, though not ideal. The Kremlin has not confirmed the presence of its forces but acknowledges enhancing ties with African nations. The American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project suggests that Russia’s military presence in Niger could complicate US operations and pose strategic challenges to Europe over time.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon discussed recent tensions in a phone call, focusing on the treatment of Central Asian migrants in Russia and cooperation against terrorism. This call follows a crackdown on migrants after the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack on March 22. Both leaders agreed to improve collaboration on migration management and counterterrorism, despite public tensions and complaints from Tajik officials about the treatment of their citizens in Russia. The Kremlin emphasized their commitment to maintaining strong bilateral relations, although the Tajik summary of the conversation omitted any blame on external forces for escalating situations.
The Uzbek Foreign Labor Migration Agency has refuted claims that Uzbek citizens were detained at major Moscow airports and various border crossings in Russia, countering reports circulating on Telegram. However, human rights activist Valentina Chupik reported that approximately 4,500 migrants were recently detained at Russian airports and an equal number prevented from entering at land borders, with Uzbek, Kyrgyz, and Tajik nationals making up the majority. This issue arises as remittances from Russia to Uzbekistan decrease, impacting the country’s GDP in comparison to its neighbors, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russia aims to fully control Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by summer 2024 and may extend its offensive to Zaporizhia Oblast. Ukrainian officials emphasize the ongoing threat, noting Russian plans could also include attempts to capture Kharkiv or Sumy cities. Despite having a significant artillery advantage and air superiority, Russian forces are not expected to quickly overcome Ukrainian defenses, including in areas like Chasiv Yar. Ukrainian President Zelensky acknowledges recent Russian tactical gains and warns of an expanded Russian offensive, highlighting the critical role of incoming US and European military aid in countering these efforts.
The first shipments of resumed US military assistance, including anti-armor rockets, missiles, and artillery shells, have arrived in Ukraine. However, it will take several more weeks for these and other Western weapons and ammunition to be deployed in significant numbers at the frontline. Additional supplies, such as Spanish missiles for Patriot air defense systems and German Patriot systems, are expected to arrive soon, with some not anticipated until late June. Despite these deliveries, substantial amounts of Western military equipment may take months to reach Ukrainian forces. Meanwhile, US military assessments suggest that while Russia may achieve small gains in eastern Ukraine, it lacks the manpower for a major offensive, and the Ukrainian defense is expected to hold firm in the near term.
Russian forces in Ukraine have not significantly expanded recently, maintaining a deployment of about 510,000 to 515,000 personnel, a slight increase from January’s 462,000. Despite this, the Russian military has not significantly improved its combat power for offensive operations. The majority of Russian troops are involved in frontline activities rather than forming strategic reserves. Moreover, the quality of Russian elite units, such as the airborne and naval infantry, has degraded significantly due to intensive combat roles, transforming all units into less specialized motorized rifle units focused on ground assaults. Despite these challenges, Russian forces are adapting, operating more cohesively under unified command, and innovating in operational tactics.
Ukrainian and Russian forces are unlikely to achieve victory through attritional warfare alone, a view consistently expressed by Ukrainian officials and military analysts. Both sides are advised that winning requires technological superiority and, for Ukraine, the international isolation of Russia. Although currently at a rough parity, neither side can make significant operational advances without a technological edge. Ukrainian Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk highlighted the strategic use of drones by both forces for aerial reconnaissance and adjustments in troop movements to smaller units to evade detection and targeting. Despite these tactical adaptations, Russian forces are making only marginal gains, which are costly and offer limited strategic benefit.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu provided a reserved assessment of recent Russian territorial gains in Ukraine, acknowledging the seizure of 547 square kilometers since January 1, 2024. This figure is closely aligned with the 516 square kilometers independently verified by the Institute for the Study of War. Shoigu’s remarks, including claims of capturing specific locations and ongoing information operations exaggerating Ukrainian losses, suggest a strategic downplay of expectations ahead of a major offensive planned for summer 2024. This comes as Russia prepares to face increasingly well-equipped Ukrainian forces, indicating a cautious approach to managing domestic perceptions of the war’s progress.
The Institute for the Study of War has reported significant Russian military deployments along the Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod border areas, with the Northern Grouping of Forces deploying at least 50,000 personnel.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces successfully struck a Russian military training ground in Mozhnyakivka, Luhansk Oblast, approximately 80 km behind the frontlines, using four US-provided ATACMS missiles. This attack reportedly resulted in the deaths of 116 Russian personnel, highlighting the ongoing intense military engagements in the region.
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces successfully destroyed a Russian Buk M-1 anti-aircraft missile launcher in the Sumy sector using attack drones. The strike, which was captured on drone footage, resulted in the launcher catching fire and being irreparably damaged along with its fire control unit and the six missiles it carried. While the specific type of the Buk system and the attack drones used were not detailed, the incident is part of a broader Ukrainian strategy to clear airspace threats in preparation for the introduction of Western-made aircraft to the Ukrainian Air Force. This operation is the latest in a series of successful Ukrainian efforts targeting Russian Buk systems, emphasizing their tactical shift to protect their skies and support upcoming military enhancements.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces have made a modest advance southeast of Kupyansk, specifically in the area of Kyslivka, as part of ongoing clashes along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Recent geolocated footage indicates the presence of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army in central Kyslivka. There are unconfirmed reports of further advancements towards Kotlyarivka. Kharkiv Oblast Head Oleh Syniehubov noted that Russia has bolstered its assault units in the region with additional equipment and new recruits, including convicts, and is actively probing Ukrainian defenses in various sectors along the frontline. Fighting continues in multiple locations around Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna, indicating a sustained Russian effort to exploit any vulnerabilities in Ukrainian defenses.
Ukrainian forces maintained their positions in the Siversk area, northeast of Bakhmut, successfully repelling Russian attacks in several locations. Despite ongoing clashes east, southeast, and southwest of Siversk, there were no confirmed changes to the frontline, indicating a continued stalemate in this sector.
Russian forces persisted in their assaults east of Chasiv Yar without achieving any changes to the frontline. Russian milbloggers suggested that Russian troops are enhancing their tactical positions through small infantry assaults but are not planning to intensify these operations until Ukrainian defenses weaken significantly. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces report heavy Russian personnel losses in what they describe as “meat assaults.” Continuous clashes are reported in various areas around Chasiv Yar, with involvement from Russian units.
Ukrainian Major General Vadym Skibitskyi expects the fall of Chasiv Yar, a town in Donetsk Oblast, soon, echoing the recent capture of Avdiivka by Russian forces. In an interview with The Economist, he highlighted Russia’s strategic shift to Chasiv Yar and Ocheretyne, aiming to secure further parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Russian forces made marginal advances in several areas around Avdiivka, particularly northwest of the city and in central Ocheretyne, with additional gains west of Solovyove. Russian milbloggers reported control of parts of Arkhanhelske and detailed advances into central Arkhanhelske, stretching 3.85 kilometers wide and two kilometers deep. Concerns were raised by Ukrainian servicemen that these advances could enhance Russian offensive capabilities from Ocheretyne. Other reported movements include Russian advances near Novooleksandrivka, Keramik, Novopokrovske, and Sokil, with positions consolidating up to 200 meters in depth near Semenivka and Berdychi. Russian commentary emphasizes the need to secure these gains quickly in anticipation of incoming US military assistance to Ukraine. Further fighting was noted near Kalynove, Umanske, Yasnobrodivka, and Netaylove, northwest and west of Avdiivka.
Russian forces achieved slight territorial gains southwest of Donetsk City, specifically northwest and west of Novomykhailivka. Russian milbloggers reported that the advances are extending towards Paraskoviivka. Continuous fighting was also reported west and southwest of Donetsk City, near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
Ongoing clashes were reported in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian milbloggers mentioned an advance on the southern outskirts of Urozhaine, south of Velyka Novosilka, though this has not been visually confirmed. Positional fighting was also noted near Staromayorske. Additionally, Russian aircraft were reported to have struck a bridge across the Mokri Yaly River linking Velyka Novosilka with Vremivka. Russian forces are actively involved near Hulyaipole in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Positional fighting persisted near Robotyne and Verbove in western Zaporizhia Oblast, with no significant tactical gains reported despite ongoing Russian frontal assaults in the area for several months. Some milbloggers suggest that even if captured, Robotyne would represent only a minor informational victory for Russian forces.
Continued positional fighting was reported in east Kherson Oblast and the Dnipro River Delta, including near Krynky. Ukrainian forces are facing small Russian assault groups attempting to reclaim positions on Nestryha Island, without success. Additionally, there are reports of intensified Ukrainian night-time raids supported by drones and artillery along the Dnipro River.
Ukrainian Civilian Victims Of War
The casualty count of Ukrainian civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS:7 INJURIES: 27
- Russian forces targeted central Kharkiv with glide bombs on May 3, damaging residential buildings in the Kholodnohirskyi district. An 82-year-old woman died, and a 66-year-old man was injured, with a 78-year-old man experiencing shock. The attack caused significant damage to buildings, including trapping people under rubble, and damaging a tram.
- A 66-year-old man died after his house was struck in Novoosynove village, Kupiansk district.
- A 66-year-old man was injured in the village of Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi.
- Eight children and a 75-year-old man were injured in an attack on the town of Derhachi.
- In Donetsk Oblast, a 12-year-old boy and another person were killed, and two others were injured in a strike on Memryk village in the Pokrovsk district.
- Russia targeted Kurakhove, a town west of occupied Donetsk, using a Uragan rocket launcher. Two people died, and a 33-year-old woman and a 48-year-old man were injured.
- In Chasiv Yar, a Russian first-person-view (FPV) drone killed a 55-year-old resident and injured two others, aged 46 and 53, on the street.
- Netailove was hit by an artillery strike, injuring a 71-year-old man.
- One person was injured in Krasnohorivka village, and another in Velyka Novosilka village.
- In Kherson Oblast, Russia attacked 14 settlements, including the regional center of Kherson, injuring one person.
- Russian troops attacked the Kropyvnytskyi district in Kirovohrad Oblast injuring a man. The attack targeted infrastructure and houses, with a man hospitalized with severe injuries. Emergency services are on site, but no further details were provided.
- Russia launched drone attacks on Kharkiv, damaging buildings and injuring four people, including a child. The strikes hit the Osnoviansky district. Two women aged 52 and 89, and a 13-year-old girl were hurt. One woman is treated for shock. The 52-year-old and the 13-year-old are in hospital. A fire broke out from debris of a downed drone. Two explosions were heard around 1 a.m.
The aftermath of Russian attack on Kharkiv
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched limited missile strikes primarily targeting Kharkiv Oblast. Specific targets included Chuhuiv, where two S-300 missiles were used, and civilian areas in Derhachi and Kholodnohirskyi regions, where glide bombs, including a D-30 munition, were deployed. Additionally, a non-operational facility near Ostroverkhivka was hit with Grom E-1 missiles on May 2. There are unverified claims of a Ukrainian IRIS-T air defense system being struck near Ostroverkhivka. Furthermore, Russian aircraft targeted Snake Island in Odesa Oblast with missiles, though the type and number remain unspecified.
President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, announced in a television interview that efforts are underway to ensure China’s participation in the upcoming world peace summit in Switzerland this June, emphasizing the importance of Beijing’s presence. Russia has not been invited to the summit, reflecting Ukraine’s firm stance. Yermak emphasized that consultations are being held continuously with various partners to secure China’s attendance, and this task is a priority that his team is pursuing around the clock. In a related social media post, President Zelensky highlighted the strategic objective of the summit: to harness global strength to compel Russia towards peace, aiming to include as many countries as possible to counteract any interference by Russia.
Ukraine improved its ranking in the 2024 World Press Freedom Index, moving from 79th to 61st place, according to Reporters Without Borders (RSF). The index assesses countries based on factors like security, legal framework, and socio-economic conditions. RSF highlighted a global decline in political support for media autonomy, with increased political pressures affecting press freedom. In Ukraine, specific incidents such as the targeting of journalists following critical reports, and illegal surveillance, indicate ongoing challenges for the press. The report also noted that Russia’s war against Ukraine significantly impacts the media landscape, posing direct threats to Ukrainian journalists and contributing to the spread of Kremlin-backed propaganda. Despite these challenges, Ukraine’s improved ranking reflects better security conditions and fewer journalist fatalities.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Czechia is providing refuge to Ukrainian refugees amid the war but won’t support Ukrainian men avoiding military service, as required by law. Ukrainian men aged 18 to 60 are generally restricted from leaving Ukraine during martial law. Czechia has temporarily suspended consular support and banned sending documents for men in this age group. Over 94,000 men in Czechia have temporary protection due to the war. While Czechia legally can’t enforce return, Ukraine could request extradition. Failure to provide documents may lead to fines and deportation. Some countries, like Germany and Estonia, offer residency permits to Ukrainian refugees, even without valid passports.
Ukraine’s Allies
UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron has pledged £3 billion annually in military aid to Ukraine indefinitely. This commitment comes as part of the UK’s promise to spend 2.5% of GDP on defense and to provide ongoing support to Ukraine. Cameron emphasized that the aid includes weaponry, and that Ukraine has the right to use it within Russian territory if needed. The UK has already pledged £12.5 billion in support since February 2022, with a significant portion allocated for military assistance. Cameron highlighted the importance of supporting Ukraine and announced negotiations for a “100-Year Partnership” between the UK and Ukraine, aiming to strengthen ties across various sectors. Further details on the partnership are yet to be disclosed.
U.S. Ambassador Bridget Brink stated that while Washington supports Ukraine’s defense, it opposes using U.S.-made weapons for strikes on Russian soil. Ukraine seeks longer-range arms, but allies are cautious about providing weapons that could target Russia. President Zelensky assures foreign-supplied weapons won’t be used outside Ukraine. Domestically produced arms, capable of reaching deep into Russia, have no such restrictions. Brink reiterated the U.S. stance against strikes in Russia since the invasion’s start.
The United States is spearheading discussions within the Group of Seven (G7) to form a $50 billion military aid package for Ukraine, funded by interest from frozen Russian assets. Approximately $300 billion in Russian assets have been immobilized globally, with around $5 billion in the U.S., generating an estimated $5.3 billion annually in the EU. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen emphasized the goal of a unified G7 effort on this initiative. The U.S. aims to finalize this plan by the G7 meeting in Italy this June, though reaching an agreement could take months. Meanwhile, the U.S. recently passed the REPO Act, permitting the seizure of Russian assets in American banks to support Ukraine, which continues to face significant military shortages amid ongoing conflict with Russia.
The U.S. will invest over $250 million in Ukraine’s agricultural sector through the new USAID Harvest program, announced Deputy Agricultural Minister Denys Bashlyk. This initiative aims to rebuild and expand the sector, which suffered over $80 billion in damages due to the war, according to estimates from the Kyiv School of Economics and the World Bank. The program will focus on aiding small grain and oilseed producers to increase their exports, with a target of boosting agricultural exports by $1.5 billion and attracting $500 million in private investment. This comes as Ukraine increases its exports, facilitated by new shipping routes and insurance programs after Russia exited the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
Italy is preparing a new defense aid package for Ukraine that includes a SAMP/T air defense system, along with artillery and Stinger anti-air missiles, as reported by La Repubblica.
Hensoldt, a German defense manufacturer, has committed to delivering six additional TRML-4D radars to Ukraine by the end of 2024, with the order valued at over 100 million euros. These radars are capable of detecting and tracking up to 1,500 targets within a 250-kilometer radius, including cruise missiles, aircraft, and helicopters.
Raiffeisen Bank International plans to exit Russia starting in summer 2024, citing pressure amid the ongoing war. The move follows European Parliament’s call to comply with EU sanctions. Raiffeisen expects ECB to request accelerated withdrawal and reduce loans in Russia by 2026, leading to a complete exit. Chairman Strobl says selling the Russian subsidiary to a foreign company is the preferred option due to sanctions on potential Russian buyers.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russian occupation authorities are actively deporting Ukrainian civilians from occupied territories to Russia and other occupied regions. The head of Zaporizhia Oblast’s occupation migration department and his deputy have been reported by Ukraine’s State Security Service (SBU) to forcibly move civilians from Zaporizhia to Rostov Oblast, and then near the Latvian border, presenting them as “refugees to the EU” to stir migrant tensions. Additionally, 10 minors from Kherson Oblast were taken to a children’s camp in Primorsky Krai, Russia, with plans to transport an additional 200 minors there in 2024. There are also reports of forced relocations of civilians from specific areas in Kherson Oblast to occupied Crimea and further into occupied Kherson.
Hospitals in Russian-occupied Luhansk Oblast are reportedly enforcing a policy where newborns will be confiscated from mothers unless at least one parent can demonstrate Russian citizenship. This requirement is set to begin on May 6, as stated by Artem Lysohor, Head of the Luhansk Oblast Military Administration. This policy potentially violates international law, specifically the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, which considers “imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group” as genocidal actions.
Russian occupation officials are actively militarizing and indoctrinating Ukrainian youth in occupied regions. In Luhansk, officials are developing a new textbook aligned with Russian educational standards to shape perceptions of recent history. Additionally, in Zaporizhia Oblast, 200 children participated in military-patriotic games organized by Russian youth organizations in the occupied cities of Berdyansk and Melitopol, as stated by local official Vladimir Rogov.
Russia News
Ukraine’s military intelligence launched a major cyberattack in Russia’s Tatarstan, targeting internet providers and mobile operators. The attack focused on the Alabuga economic zone, causing internet disruptions in Kazan, the region’s capital. Tattelecom, a major telecom operator, reported it as the strongest attack in its history. Alabuga, which hosts a drone factory, has been previously targeted by Ukraine. In April, Ukrainian forces struck drone factories in Yelabuga and Nizhnekamsk, marking some of Ukraine’s longest-distance attacks into Russia.
The Russian Ministry of Defense has reportedly made several high-level command changes in recent months. Key appointments include replacing the Eastern Military District Commander with Lieutenant General Alexander Sanchik and the Southern Military District Commander with Colonel General Gennady Anashkin. Other significant shifts involve the appointment of former Western Military District Commander Colonel General Yevgeny Nikiforov as Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces, and new assignments for the chiefs of staff in the Southern and Eastern Military Districts. These changes occur as Russia prepares for an expected summer offensive and may be part of a broader strategy to enhance military effectiveness and oversight in key operational areas. However, the immediate impact of these new commanders on the battlefield remains to be seen.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian military plans include mobilizing about 100,000 personnel for offensive operations in June and July, and an additional 300,000 by the end of 2024. These efforts, referred to as crypto-mobilization, aim to recruit contract service personnel without another large-scale call-up of reservists. Despite these mobilization efforts, Russia’s current replacement rate is unlikely to meet the needs for establishing strategic-level reserves necessary for larger-scale offensives in 2024. Russian forces are currently experiencing heavy casualties, estimated at 25,000 to 30,000 per month, which compels them to focus mainly on maintaining existing troop levels. The Kremlin is expected to continue these crypto-mobilization efforts without resorting to a new wave of unpopular partial mobilization.
The Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) is actively supporting Russian military operations in Ukraine by providing chaplains. Metropolitan Kirill of Stavropol and Nevinnomyssk recently stated that while there are currently 309 ROC chaplains with Russian forces, an additional 1,300 are needed. He noted that 60 to 70 percent of ROC personnel in occupied Ukraine are volunteer clergy. The ROC is also organizing special training courses for clergy who will serve in combat zones in Ukraine.
Rostec General Director Sergei Chemezov announced an increase in the production of all types of guided glide bombs at a meeting with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin on May 3. This initiative involves adapting aerial bombs into both unguided and guided glide bombs with unified planning and correction modules, allowing Russian aircraft to strike from safer distances from the frontlines. The increased use of these bombs has been tactically significant, as evidenced by their role in the recent capture of Avdiivka. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also noted that over 9,000 glide bombs have been used against Ukraine since the beginning of 2024.
Russian officials are taking steps to support military operations in Ukraine by repurposing confiscated civilian resources. A new bill introduced in the State Duma on May 3 aims to streamline the process for the Russian government to transfer seized firearms and ammunition to the military. Of the 250,000 firearms held by the Ministry of Internal Affairs, 70,000 are functional and could be utilized in Ukraine. Additionally, the Republic of Buryatia is developing a system to transfer confiscated civilian vehicles to the military, with 266 vehicles seized in 2023 alone. There are also calls from Russian milbloggers for the redistribution of boats confiscated from poachers to aid military efforts along the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Russian officials are actively denying accusations of war crimes in Ukraine, countering claims by insisting they have destroyed their chemical weapons and accusing Ukrainian forces of using such weapons. On May 3, the Russian Permanent Mission to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons rebutted a US Department of State report that accused Russia of violating the Chemical Weapons Convention. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted 444 chemical attacks in April 2024, primarily using K-51 grenades, marking an increase from the previous month and totaling 1,891 uses from February 2023 to April 2024. This campaign is part of broader Russian efforts to deflect from their actions and discredit Ukrainian forces through intensified information operations.
The Kremlin is continuing its campaign to falsely represent itself as a religiously tolerant state while simultaneously suppressing religious freedoms in Ukraine. The US Commission on International Religious Freedom’s annual report, released on May 1, reaffirmed Russia’s status as a country of “particular concern” for its religious freedom violations, a designation first given in December 2023. In response, Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov criticized the report as unsubstantiated and accused the US of interfering in Russian internal affairs and disrupting interfaith harmony. Additionally, Russian officials defended actions against the Ukrainian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate, which the US claims is not independent but a tool of Russian hybrid warfare. The Institute for the Study of War notes that Russia’s actions in Ukraine include efforts to eliminate independent Ukrainian cultural and national identities through religious persecution.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com