Summary of the day: Russian forces have made slight tactical gains around Avdiivka, although significant progress remains absent. The strategic direction of their next offensive is currently uncertain. Meanwhile, investigations indicate Russia is obstructing the repatriation of Ukrainian children who have been forcibly deported and adopted, challenging the Kremlin’s purported humanitarian rationale. Amidst these developments, NATO’s Jens Stoltenberg underscored the necessity for consistent military support to Ukraine during a surprise Kyiv visit, emphasizing the need to sustain pressure against Russia’s expectancy of waning Western aid. Moreover, the Kremlin continues its hybrid warfare against NATO countries, with actions like GPS jamming and disrupting military logistics, while Ukrainian civilians face restrictions in reporting Russian military activities due to temporary chatbot blockages on Telegram. Reports also suggest that Russian authorities are compelling Ukrainians in occupied areas to enlist in their military forces.
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
The Kremlin’s hybrid campaign against NATO states includes GPS jamming and disruptions to military logistics, impacting thousands of civilian flights across the Baltic region, such as two Finnair flights that returned to Helsinki. Suspected Russian electronic warfare assets in Kaliningrad and other sources within Russia are believed to be causing these disturbances, affecting areas as far north as Norway and Finland. British and Estonian officials view these actions as hostile, part of Russia’s broader hybrid attack strategy. Ongoing since late December 2023, these disruptions pose a direct threat to international aviation safety, prompting concerns from Baltic foreign ministers and raising alarms over suspected Russian jamming of GPS systems on commercial flights, particularly near Russian borders. Estonia’s Foreign Minister attributed these incidents to Russia, labeling them a hybrid attack and security threat. Similar incidents, like the jamming of a Royal Air Force aircraft near Kaliningrad, have reinforced these concerns, although aviation authorities downplay immediate risks to passenger safety.
The Insider, a Russian investigative outlet, revealed on April 29 that agents of the Russian General Staff’s Main Directorate (GRU) operated in the Czech Republic and Greece to support GRU Unit 29155, notorious for high-profile sabotage operations and assassination attempts in Europe. In the Czech Republic, two Russian agents assisted Unit 29155 in attacks on ammunition depots, including a deadly 2014 incident resulting in 150 tons of ammunition destroyed and two deaths, and an assassination attempt on Emilian Gebrev, head of a Bulgarian arms company supplying ammunition to Ukraine in 2014, followed by a poisoning attempt in 2015. Czech police concluded that Russian military intelligence operatives were behind the deadly ammunition depot explosions in Czechia in 2014, following a three-year investigation. The explosions killed two people in Vrbetice. Prague expelled 18 Russian diplomats in 2021 after receiving evidence of Russian involvement. The police confirmed the involvement of the GRU and stated that the goal was to disrupt arms deliveries. Suspects belonged to GRU Unit 29155, linked to assassinations and destabilization. Media reports implicated Alexander Mishkin and Anatoliy Chepiga, suspected in the Skripal poisoning. Moscow denies involvement, and charges were not pressed due to suspects being under Russia’s protection. In Greece, Nikolay and Elena Saposnikov, two Russian-born Czech citizens, ran Villa Elena in Frama, a hotel serving as a hideout for GRU operatives. This location hosted members of Unit 29155 involved in high-profile attacks such as the Skripal poisoning and Czechia bombings. The Saposnikovs, living under false identities, engaged in espionage activities, with Elena likely directing operations, ranging from intelligence-gathering to facilitating sabotage missions. GRU operatives, including suspects in the Skripal case, frequented the hotel. Additionally, another report linked Unit 29155 to the Havana Syndrome targeting U.S. personnel overseas.
A former German army captain, identified as Thomas H., admitted to spying for Russia, fearing a global nuclear escalation amid Russia’s war in Ukraine. On trial in Dusseldorf, he confessed to espionage and leaking state secrets, stating the accusations were accurate. Arrested in August last year, he expressed concern for his family’s safety, leading him to contact Russian authorities to inquire about the conflict’s potential escalation. He provided sensitive information to Russian officials, including military documents, without payment. This case adds to security concerns amid Russia’s invasion, following other espionage-related incidents involving German-Russian nationals and military officials.
German courts are set to try the first nine members of an extremist group accused of plotting a coup to overthrow the democratic government. The Reichsbuerger (Citizens of the Reich) group, with 27 members overall, allegedly aimed to reinstate imperial Germany’s system and install Prince Heinrich XIII Reuss as head of state. Former military personnel were among its ranks. Plans included establishing an interim government and negotiating with World War II victors, notably Russia. The group also contacted Russian consulates. German prosecutors are investigating Russia’s response. The group’s ideology resembles that of the U.S. QAnon movement, believing in a “deep state” rule. They amassed 500,000 euros for weapons and ammunition.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko signed the annual decree for conscription, mandating the enlistment of male citizens under 27 who have completed reserve officer training into the Belarusian armed forces and border service. This move is part of Belarus’s routine military staffing procedures.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk of the Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian authorities have halted fuel transportation across the Kerch Strait railway bridge for the past month due to concerns over potential Ukrainian strikes. Such strikes could ignite the fuel and risk destroying the bridge. He noted that the bridge, encompassing both road and railway sections, is not critical for Russian military logistics. This cessation of use for military and logistics transport by Russian forces was also confirmed by Vasyl Malyuk, the Head of the Ukrainian Security Service, in March 2024.
Ukrainian officials reported that the Kremlin is attempting to incite panic among Ukrainians with rumors of a potential Russian offensive in Sumy Oblast. Lieutenant Colonel Nazer Voloshyn of the Khortytsia Group of Forces noted that Ukrainian forces are closely monitoring Russian troop movements near the border, and currently, these forces do not pose a significant threat. Additionally, Volodymyr Artyuk, Head of the Sumy Oblast Military Administration, confirmed in March that there have been no sightings of Russian strike groups forming along the border, supporting claims that the threat level remains low.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russi
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line with no significant changes to the frontline. Reports indicate continued clashes across various sectors, including areas northwest, southwest, and west of Svatove and Kreminna. Disagreements among Russian milbloggers arose concerning the control of Kyslivka, with some claiming partial occupation. There is also speculation about Russian advancements towards Makiivka, although these remain unconfirmed. Ukrainian officials reported that Russia is regrouping forces near the Kharkiv-Belgorod border, hinting at potential future offensives, possibly towards Kharkiv City. However, assessments suggest Russia currently lacks the necessary forces to capture Ukraine’s second largest city.
Positional battles persisted in the Siversk area northeast of Bakhmut with no shifts in the frontline reported. Skirmishes occurred east, southeast, and south of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske, Vyimka, and Rozdolivka respectively. Russian forces were active near Spirne, southeast of Siversk.
There were no confirmed changes to the frontline near Chasiv Yar despite ongoing fighting. Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian mechanized assault north of Klishchiivka, southeast of Chasiv Yar, as evidenced by recent footage. Russian forces are reportedly using “turtle” armored vehicles, enhanced to protect against drone strikes, near Chasiv Yar and previously near Krasnohorivka, west of Donetsk City. Clashes also occurred around Chasiv Yar, including Hryhorivka, Novyi Microraion, Ivanivske, Andriivka, Pivdenne, and Niu York. The deputy commander of a Ukrainian unit noted ongoing alternating attacks in Ivanivske, with both Ukrainian and Russian forces controlling approximately 50% of the area. Russian troops are targeting Ivanivske, a key lowland area, to potentially push towards Chasiv Yar.
Russian forces near Avdiivka have several tactical options for future offensives, but their exact plans remain uncertain. While milbloggers speculate on potential targets northwest of Avdiivka, there’s no consensus on their next move. Some suggest Russian troops are attempting to advance towards Arkhanhelske and Sokil from different directions. Analysts believe Russia could either continue west towards Pokrovsk or north towards Chasiv Yar, aiming to stabilize their position in the area.
Russian forces have made minor progress around Avdiivka but no significant breakthroughs. Some gains northwest and southwest of the town were reported. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims they have taken Semenivka, west of Avdiivka. Claims of Russian advances and ongoing clearing operations in nearby areas have been made, although independent confirmation is lacking. Skirmishes continue in the regions surrounding Avdiivka.
Russian forces made confirmed advances near Donetsk City, particularly east and within Krasnohorivka, west of the city. Geolocated footage shows Russian mechanized units employing “turtle” tanks—armored with protective metal sheets—effectively defending against Ukrainian drone strikes. Claims of Russian advancements also emerged near Novomykhailivka, southwest of Donetsk City, though these remain unconfirmed. Continued fighting was reported in areas west and southwest of Donetsk City, including Heorhiivka and Krasnohorivka.
Positional engagements persisted in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Skirmishes occurred northeast of Vuhledar near Vodyane, southeast of Velyka Novosilka near Novodarivka, and south of Velyka Novosilka near Urozhaine and Staromayorske. A Russian milblogger claimed advances near Mykilske, Urozhaine, and Staromayorske, but these claims lack visual confirmation.
Positional fighting occurred in western Zaporizhia Oblast near Robotyne and Verbove, with no changes to the frontline.
Positional fighting occurred near Krynky in east Kherson Oblast without any changes to the frontline.
Ukraine has regained control of Nestryha Island in the Kherson region, a strategic location at the mouth of the Dnipro River. This victory, as reported by Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, enhances Ukraine’s drone surveillance capabilities and disrupts Russian supply lines. Despite this success, Syrskyi noted the tense situation in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, with Russian forces attempting to advance but facing resistance. The capture of Nestryha Island not only limits Russian resupply routes but also provides Ukraine with a potential base for future operations to cross the river and advance southward. Additionally, Ukrainian forces maintain control near Veletenske village and have successfully repelled Russian attempts to push them out of Krynky since November 2022, following the liberation of Kherson and nearby areas.
Ukrainian Civilian Victims Of War
The casualty count of Ukrainian civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 6 INJURIES: 38
- A Russian missile strike hit Odesa, killing at least five people, and injuring around 30, including two children. The attack targeted residential buildings and civilian infrastructure. Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper confirmed the casualties, with eight people in serious condition, including a four-year-old girl. One victim was identified as Serhiy Kivalov, a former lawmaker and ally of ousted President Viktor Yanukovych.
- Russian forces attacked Kizomys village in Kherson Oblast, killing a 60-year-old man. Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported that residential areas were targeted in the attack, resulting in the man’s death from severe injuries.
- Russian attacks on Krasnohorivka, Ptyche, and Zhelanne in Donetsk Oblast injured three people.
- Russian troops attacked a house in Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, injuring a 35-year-old woman and a 52-year-old man. In Strilecha village, a 59-year-old man was wounded in another attack. Additionally, a 48-year-old man was hospitalized after a mine explosion in Bairak village. Two houses and an enterprise were damaged by Russian shelling in Vovchansk town.Top of Form
- A man was injured in a Russian attack on the Zaporizhzhia district.
Bottom of Form
Kivalov’s Castle in Odesa on fire following a Russian attack on Odesa
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched missile and guided glide bomb strikes targeting Kharkiv City and parts of southern Ukraine. In Kharkiv, two explosions occurred in the Kyivskyi district due to these strikes. Additional missile attacks hit Zaporizhzhia City and Odesa City, with the latter experiencing damage to civilian and residential structures.
Ukraine requested suspension of certain human rights under martial law, following an application to the Council of Europe. This request, made on April 4, aims to fulfill international obligations amid ongoing conflict. The European Court of Human Rights allows derogation from some rights during armed aggression. Kyiv’s application outlines temporary limitations, including property seizure, curfew, and restrictions on movement. Martial law, initiated since Russia’s invasion in 2022, restricts men aged 18-60 from leaving Ukraine, intensifying mobilization efforts due to personnel shortages. President Zelensky signed an updated mobilization bill in April, enforcing stricter measures on violators, including property sanctions.
Ukraine and the United Arab Emirates finalized a trade agreement to enhance investment and trade. Signed on April 26, the pact aims to deepen economic ties by lowering tariff barriers and fostering investment cooperation. UAE’s Foreign Trade Minister noted Ukraine’s role as a gateway to Europe for exports and vital source for food imports. The deal is seen as part of UAE’s strategy to diversify its non-oil foreign trade. Ukraine anticipates a potential GDP boost of 0.1%, with sectors like transport, metallurgy, and food production set to benefit.
Polish protesters ended their blockade at the Hrebenne-Rava-Ruska border crossing, reported by Ukraine’s Border Guard Service. This effectively reopened the entire Polish-Ukrainian border. Trucks carrying grain to Poland are still restricted at Hrebenne-Rava-Ruska, except for transit shipments. Traffic resumed for other trucks and cargo at 10 a.m. local time. The blockade began in February over concerns about Ukrainian agricultural imports and the EU’s Green Deal. Earlier, on April 22, protesters lifted the blockade at the Yahodyn-Dorohusk crossing. The protests strained Ukraine-Poland relations, leading to discussions between Prime Ministers Shmyhal and Tusk about finding mutually agreeable solutions. Tusk also urged Polish farmers to end the blockade on April 18.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
More than 30 men died trying to cross Ukraine’s western border to evade military mobilization. Ukrainian law restricts men aged 18-60 from leaving due to potential military service. About 20,000 men have crossed illegally, often with smugglers, who abandon them mid-journey. Border Guard Service refuses about 120 crossings daily. 450 criminal networks have been uncovered smuggling people. Most attempts occur on borders with Moldova and Romania, and many drown in the Tysa River.
Ukraine is actively expanding its domestic defense industry and enhancing collaboration with Western allies to bolster its war efforts. President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that Ukrainian defense companies are producing weapons and equipment faster than funding can support, prompting efforts to attract foreign investment for additional projects. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov noted that Ukraine has recently equipped its forces with domestically produced armored vehicles. Deputy Defense Minister Yuriy Dzhygyr highlighted that about half of the Ministry of Defense’s procurement contracts are with Ukrainian manufacturers. Additionally, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba announced an agreement with Latvia to increase joint drone production.
Ukraine’s Allies
During his unannounced third visit to Kyiv since the onset of the Russian invasion in 2022, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg discussed increasing military support with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, including a significant 100-billion-euro defense fund and military systems like a Patriot air defense system from Germany. Acknowledging NATO’s past delays in delivering aid, Stoltenberg highlighted the critical need for continuous Western support to counter Russian strategies and maintain Ukraine’s sovereignty, as inconsistent support could reinforce the Kremlin’s tactics. In their press conference, the emphasis was on strengthening Ukraine-NATO military ties, and while Ukraine hasn’t received an invitation to join NATO, Stoltenberg expressed confidence in Ukraine’s eventual integration and invited Zelensky to the upcoming summit in Washington, signaling a path toward membership.
Ukraine continues to receive significant military assistance from its Western allies. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Australia will provide 50 million AUD in MANPADS munitions, over 30 million AUD for Ukraine’s drone coalition, and approximately 20 million AUD for other military needs, along with air-to-ground munitions. Canada will supply 3 million CAD for drone production in Ukraine, 13 million CAD to the Czech ammunition initiative, and 100 Skyranger drones. Spain has committed to delivering artillery shells, air defense missiles, small arms, logistics vehicles, armored infantry vehicles, anti-tank weapons, and artillery systems in the next few months. Denmark is increasing its military aid to Ukraine by 4.4 billion Danish kroner in 2024. Lithuania has provided M577 armored personnel carriers and is considering supplying radar systems. The EU’s Czech ammunition initiative is set to start delivering artillery shells to Ukraine by early June.
Belgium has announced plans to deliver its first F-16 aircraft to Ukraine in 2024, aiming for delivery before year-end. Additionally, Belgian officials confirmed an allocation of an extra 200 million euros to a German-led defense aid coalition and will provide more air defense missiles to Ukraine.
Polish lawmakers visited Ukraine to discuss military aid and sanctions against Russia. Ukraine urgently needs air defense systems due to increased Russian attacks. Poland can’t provide Patriot systems but pledged other assistance. They talked about NATO summit plans and Ukraine’s peace formula.
Poland could shield Ukraine’s western regions with its air defenses, but it requires political will, says Air Force spokesperson Illia Yevlash. Recent Russian aerial attacks near Lviv Oblast have heightened concerns. Ukraine seeks advanced air defense systems like Patriots to counter Russian airstrikes. Talks are ongoing with partners to bolster defenses against glide bomb raids. In March, Poland’s Deputy Foreign Minister hinted at NATO’s consideration of shooting down Russian missiles. Past incidents, including a missile entering Polish airspace in December 2023, underscore the urgency of defense measures.
Duchess Sophie visited Ukraine to show support for those affected by the war, the first Royal Family member to do so since the Russian invasion. She met President Zelensky, honoring those lost in Bucha. King Charles has also condemned Russia’s aggression. The Duchess discussed support for conflict survivors and shared a message from the King.
Latvenergo, a Latvian state-owned company, provided Ukraine with equipment to restore its energy system following recent Russian attacks on critical infrastructure. Russia intensified missile and drone strikes, targeting energy facilities on multiple occasions. The Trypillya Thermal Power Plant in Kyiv Oblast was hit, leading to the destruction of Centrenergo generation capacity. Ukraine received aid including a high-voltage transformer, transformer oil, and an air compressor. The European Union covered transportation costs for the aid delivered by Latvia’s State Fire and Rescue Service. Latvia has been a strong supporter of Ukraine, providing significant military aid amounting to 392 million euros (approximately $420 million).
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Ukrainian officials report ongoing coercion by Russian authorities to enlist Ukrainians in occupied regions into the Russian military. Recent data from the Office of the Ukrainian Presidential Representation in Crimea includes the burial of 784 Russian soldiers, 593 of whom were Ukrainian, presumably in occupied Crimea. Additionally, 42 servicemen from Crimea, likely Ukrainians, have been captured as POWs by Ukrainian forces. Russian efforts also extend to recruiting civilian medical staff into military roles. Furthermore, Russian occupation authorities are forming conscription commissions to boost recruitment for Russia’s spring conscription cycle. In Mariupol, images were shared of a Russian military recruitment event taking place in Freedom Square.
Investigations reveal that Russia is blocking the repatriation of forcibly deported Ukrainian children, contradicting its humanitarian claims. Notable cases include Sergey Mironov and his wife, who adopted children from Kherson, altered their identities, and abandoned a sick boy, now missing. Another girl adopted by the couple has a legal guardian and sibling in Greece actively seeking her return. These actions, which include changing deported children’s identities and relocating them into Russian families, aim to conceal their origins and complicate repatriation. Russian officials, including President Putin, frame these actions as humanitarian, but critics see them as attempts to erase Ukrainian identity. Such practices have sparked significant criticism, highlighting ongoing issues with the treatment of deported Ukrainian children in Russia and demonstrating a deliberate effort to obscure these children’s true identities, making it challenging for their families to locate and retrieve them. Ukraine demands Marharyta’s return while the whereabouts of the abandoned boy remain unknown.
Telegram recently temporarily disabled several chatbots used by Ukrainian civilians to report on Russian military activities. The affected bots included those managed by Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate, Security Service, and Ministry of Digital Development, along with other associated channels. The suspension, occurring on August 27 and 28, was due to a “false positive” and has since been lifted, according to a Telegram spokesperson. These chatbots are essential for Ukrainian users to communicate directly with security services about Russia’s war efforts. Following the restoration of the bots, there was mixed reaction from Russian milbloggers and ongoing uncertainty about the Kremlin’s involvement in the initial suspension.
Russia News
Adam Kadyrov, the 16-year-old son of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, has been appointed as the “curator” of the Vladimir Putin Russian Special Forces University in Gudermes. The appointment was announced by Ramzan Kadyrov on his Telegram channel, noting that the university’s rector requested Adam for the role due to his familiarity with the institution. Details about Adam’s specific responsibilities were not provided. Earlier, Adam had received several regional honors and was involved in a controversial incident where he was filmed assaulting a man in jail, but no criminal charges were pursued despite the evidence.
Despite heavy Western sanctions and a 90% profit drop after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s banking sector, particularly Sberbank, has seen a resurgence. Seven major European banks operating in Russia reported tripled profits in 2023, paying 800 million euros in taxes, up from 200 million euros in 2021. This represents 0.4% of Russia’s expected non-energy budget revenue for 2024. The banks’ profitability partly stems from restricted funds they cannot withdraw from Russia.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine’s military intelligence reports a rise in desertions among Russian soldiers in Ukraine, particularly from the Southern Military District. Around 18,000 soldiers, including conscripts and contract soldiers, have allegedly deserted, with 10,000 from the 8th Combined Arms Army. The circumstances of the desertions were not specified. Kyiv has been encouraging Russian soldiers to surrender or defect.
Russia is currently constructing a military airfield near the village of Alexeyevka in Belgorod Oblast, about 75 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. The site features an 1,800-meter-long runway that began construction in July 2023 and can accommodate various aircraft types, including helicopters, light transport jets, and specifically the Il-76 military transport aircraft as noted by Radio Liberty’s Russian service. The location, within a no-fly zone for civilian aircraft and equipped with facilities for fuel storage, vehicle repair, and tactical vehicle modification, underscores its strategic military importance. Construction, which paused during winter, resumed with paving activities continuing as of late April 2024.
The Russian Ministry of Defense continues to commend its military units for their roles in Ukraine. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu recently awarded several units, including the 11th Engineering Brigade for constructing fortifications in key sectors like Lysychansk and Avdiivka; the 50th Railway Brigade for enhancing border defenses in Bryansk Oblast and managing railway operations; the 90th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade for activities in southern Ukraine; and the 56th Airborne Regiment for operations near Robotyne. These awards are part of a broader strategy to boost military recruitment by highlighting the benefits and honors given to servicemembers.
Russia’s Allies
Chinese banks are limiting transactions with Russia due to fears of U.S. sanctions, Reuters reported. Washington is drafting sanctions that could cut off Chinese banks aiding Russia. Banks have intensified scrutiny of Russia-related transactions since March or ceased business altogether to avoid sanctions. This affects financing for non-military trade, causing issues for small Chinese exporters. Some Chinese companies are resorting to small banks at the border or underground financing channels. Major banks now take longer to process payments from Russia, forcing businesses to scale back or use alternative payment methods. China’s assistance to Russia’s military efforts in Ukraine includes providing machine tools, weapons technology, and satellite imagery, according to U.S. officials. Despite Russian media reports, Chinese banks are under pressure from Western sanctions.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com