Summary of the day: Russian forces have made limited gains northwest of Avdiivka, causing Ukrainian troops to retreat tactically from certain areas west of Avdiivka. Despite these movements, rapid Russian advancements are not expected in the near term, as the Russian forces face strategic decisions about whether to push west towards Pokrovsk or north towards Chasiv Yar. In response to potential threats against Kharkiv City, Ukraine is reallocating additional forces for its defense, although assessments suggest Russia may not have adequate troops to seize the city effectively. Further afield, internal Russian measures to manage migrants and suppress media freedoms have escalated tensions with Tajikistan and Western media, respectively. Additionally, recent minor Russian advances near Svatove and reports of significant Russian military casualties were noted.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Following the March 22 Crocus City Hall terrorist attack, Russia has tightened controls on migrants, particularly from Tajikistan, leading to strained relations between the two countries. Tajik authorities have advised their citizens to avoid travel to Russia unless necessary, and incidents at border checkpoints and Moscow airports have involved detentions and intensive checks of Tajik nationals, with many being held under poor conditions or added to an expulsion list. This has triggered an exodus of Tajik migrants from Russia, fueled by fear and concern over the intensified security measures. Russian officials justify these actions as necessary for preventing terrorism, but these measures have specifically targeted Tajik citizens, exacerbating tensions.
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova reiterated standard Russian narratives about Transnistria, falsely positioning Russia as a legitimate mediator in the Transnistrian conflict within the 5+2 negotiating format. This format involves Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, Transnistria, and the OSCE, with the EU and the US as observers. However, Russia’s role is compromised by its support of pro-Russian elements in Transnistria, which it uses to conduct hybrid operations against Moldova, undermining its claim as an impartial mediator.
In Tbilisi, Georgia, an opposition protest was held against a proposed law requiring organizations with foreign funding to register as ‘foreign agents.’ Critics argue that the law, which has passed the first of three required readings in the Georgian parliament, would limit freedom and is influenced by Russia. The ruling Georgian Dream party supports the bill and is rallying its backers, with further parliamentary readings imminent. The EU has warned that the law could affect Georgia’s European integration ambitions. A similar proposal was withdrawn last year after public demonstrations.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukraine is bolstering defenses around Kharkiv City due to potential Russian offensive threats, though it is believed Russia lacks sufficient forces for a successful siege. Ukrainian Commander Syrskyi reported increased Russian military activity near Kharkiv, likely from Belgorod Oblast, with Ukrainian forces strengthening their most vulnerable positions with extra artillery and tanks. Despite these preparations, there is no clear indication of when a Russian attack might occur. Recent regroupings of Russian forces in the area involve strategic shifts of army units within Russia’s Northern Grouping of Forces, suggesting adjustments in Russian operational focus and capabilities.
Recent reports indicate that Russia’s 6th Combined Arms Army (CAA) has not been active in the Kupyansk area since late March, with no recent offensive operations noted. This unit was involved in unsuccessful attacks near Synkivka through early 2024, suffering heavy losses without gaining ground, highlighting issues with its effectiveness. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that any Russian plan to seize Kharkiv City would be highly challenging, particularly against better-equipped Ukrainian forces. However, Russia might use the mere threat of an attack on Kharkiv to strategically distract and stretch Ukrainian defenses, aiding broader Russian military goals in the region.
The Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade refuted claims reported by the Associated Press that Ukrainian forces had withdrawn M1A1 Abrams tanks from the frontline due to the threat of Russian drones. The brigade emphasized that the tanks are effective in combat and continue to support infantry operations, countering reports that the tanks had been pulled for being vulnerable to drone detection and strikes.
Russian military bloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces attempted a missile strike against Russian air defenses in Cape Tarkhankut, Crimea, which was reportedly unsuccessful. There were also reports of explosions near Dzhankoi in Crimea. Neither Ukrainian nor Russian officials have provided comments on these claims.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces have achieved minor advances in areas northwest of Svatove, with specific progress noted in Kyslivka and south of Novoselivske based on geolocated footage from April 28. Claims of further advancement west of Krokhmalne by Russian military bloggers have not been visually confirmed. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, reported on concentrated Russian military efforts in the Kupyansk direction, with limited territorial gains near Berestove and Stelmakhivka. He noted that Russian tactics include leveraging airpower and artillery to push towards Luhansk Oblast’s borders. Active combat continues across multiple locations around Svatove.
Intense combat persisted near Kreminna without any confirmed shifts in frontline positions. Ukrainian forces successfully defended against Russian assaults in multiple locations: northwest near Makiivka, west near Nevske and Terny, and south near the Serebryanske forest. Reports indicate continued Russian offensive efforts near Terny aimed at pushing Ukrainian forces past the Zherebets River, with Chechen special forces active in the Serebryanske forest area.
There was ongoing positional fighting in the Siversk area, northeast of Bakhmut. Clashes occurred east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske, southeast near Vyimka, and south near Rozdolivka. Russian military units were active near Spirne, southeast of Siversk.
Continuous positional fighting occurred near Chasiv Yar without any confirmed shifts in the frontline. Clashes were reported in various locations including Novyi Microraion (east of Chasiv Yar), north near Hryhorivka, east near Ivanivske, and southeast near Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Niu York. Additionally, a Russian military blogger shared footage of Russian Su-25 aircraft conducting airstrikes near Chasiv Yar to aid Russian ground troops.
Russian forces near Avdiivka face strategic choices: continue pushing west towards Pokrovsk or shift north to link with operations near Chasiv Yar. Pokrovsk is identified as a key objective; moving north along the H-20 highway could position Russian forces to challenge Ukrainian defenses around Toretsk and further into Donetsk Oblast. This northern push would aim at key cities like Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka, crucial for Russian staging and offensive operations. The decision will impact Russian capabilities to achieve significant tactical gains, with a focus possibly remaining on westward advances due to strategic priorities in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces have made advances northwest of Avdiivka, prompting Ukrainian troops to strategically retreat from positions west of the city, including the specific locations of Berdychi and Semenivka, to shield their units and avoid encirclement. Despite these movements, the advances have not led to substantial gains for Russia, and a significant incursion in the near term is still considered unlikely. In a measured response, Ukraine has redeployed its forces, adopting a careful approach to hinder Russian momentum while minimizing its own casualties. Following the Russian capture of Semenivka on April 26, there were subsequent threats of encirclement and further territorial gains reported by Russian military bloggers, including Novokalynove and Keramik, although the Institute for the Study of War confirms only the losses of Berdychi and Semenivka. Meanwhile, combat continues in the vicinity, marked by persistent Russian special forces operations.
Ukrainian forces, bolstered by rested brigades, are managing to slow Russian advances near Avdiivka despite being outnumbered. The situation requires Russia to decide whether to commit more reserves to try for significant gains or accept slower progress. Russian forces are also preparing for a potential larger offensive expected in the summer, but using additional reserves now could limit their ability to achieve more strategic objectives later.
Ukrainian forces retreated from Novomykhailivka, southwest of Donetsk City, amidst ongoing clashes. Russian military bloggers report some progress by Russian troops in Krasnohorivka, west of Donetsk City, though key locations like the central brick factory have not been taken. Battles also occurred west of Donetsk near Heorhiivka and southwest near Vodyane, involving the Russian 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade with artillery support.
Fighting persisted near Staromayorske, just south of Velyka Novosilka, at the Donetsk-Zaporizhia regional border.
There were ongoing positional skirmishes in western Zaporizhia Oblast, specifically near Robotyne and Verbove, without any confirmed shifts in frontlines. The local occupation authority in Kherson Oblast alleged Russian advancements near Robotyne, while a Russian military blogger claimed increased Ukrainian shelling in the area.
Ukrainian forces gained ground near Veletenske, southwest of Kherson City, and secured Nestryha Island in the Dnipro River Delta. They also successfully defended against Russian attacks near Krynky in eastern Kherson Oblast.
Ukrainian Civilian Victims Of War
The casualty count of Ukrainian civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 0 INJURIES: 2
- Russian forces attacked the cities of Kupiansk and Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast, injuring two individuals. In Kupiansk, a Grad rocket strike trapped a 36-year-old woman under debris; she was rescued and received on-site medical care. A 52-year-old man sustained a stomach injury and was hospitalized. Meanwhile, Vovchansk experienced a strike that damaged two houses, although no casualties were reported from this incident.
- Russian forces launched attacks on ten communities in Sumy Oblast, Ukraine, resulting in at least 127 explosions from 35 firing incidents. The towns targeted included Khotin, Yunakivka, Bilopillia, Krasnopillia, Velyka Pysarivka, Esman, Shalyhyne, Seredyna-Buda, Shostka, and Novo Sloboda. Despite the heavy artillery, MLRS, drone, and mortar fire, and mines dropped, there were no reported casualties or damage to civilian infrastructure. Velyka Pysarivka, positioned on the border, suffered the most, with 25 explosions noted.
Russian strike damaged a house in the city of Kupiansk
Ukraine News
Overnight on April 27-28, Russian forces launched a series of drone and missile strikes in Ukraine, deploying drones from Crimea and Kherson and a missile from Belgorod. Ukrainian defenses downed multiple drones, including four Shahed drones in various regions and another in Mykolaiv, where a drone also damaged a hotel. A missile hit Kherson City, and other strikes affected residential and infrastructure targets in Beryslav and Kherson regions. Russia claimed hits on military targets in Chernihiv, Khmelnitsky, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. Ukraine’s major energy operator reported that this was one of the largest series of strikes on Ukrainian power plants in 2024.
In Murnau am Staffelsee, Germany, two Ukrainian soldiers undergoing medical rehabilitation were fatally stabbed on April 27 at a shopping center. German police and Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry confirmed the incident, with the victims being 23 and 36 years old. A 57-year-old Russian man, suspected in the killings, was detained at his residence. German authorities are investigating the motive, with a court decision on the suspect’s pre-trial detention expected soon. This incident follows a separate attack in February, where two Ukrainian basketball players were stabbed and later died from their injuries, with no political motive confirmed by German police.
On the evening of April 27, Ukrainian border guards discovered the bodies of two men in the Tysa River in Zakarpattia Oblast. The river, which borders Hungary, Romania, and Moldova, has been a route for men trying to flee Ukraine illegally since the imposition of martial law, which restricts draft-age men from leaving the country. The victims were retrieved and are currently being identified. The Border Guard Service warned of the dangers of crossing the river, especially given its swift current and hazardous conditions. To date, 24 individuals have died attempting this crossing.
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski described the process of returning draft-age Ukrainian men as “ethically ambiguous,” stating that Ukraine must lead this initiative. This follows Ukraine’s recent suspension of consular services for men aged 18 to 60 living abroad and restrictions on their travel during martial law. Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz confirmed Poland’s readiness to assist Ukraine with this process, while Lithuania’s Defense Minister Laurynas Kasciunas is monitoring Poland’s actions. In contrast, Germany continues to offer temporary residency to Ukrainian refugees, extending expired permits as well.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
The Ukrainian Resistance Center has indicated that Russian occupation authorities are escalating their information campaigns in occupied Ukraine to undermine trust in the Ukrainian government and military. These operations focus on discrediting Ukrainian leaders, inciting panic, and disrupting Ukrainian military efforts. Additionally, the Ukrainian Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security has noted that Russian-controlled Telegram channels are actively spreading misinformation about rifts within Ukraine’s senior political and military ranks to weaken morale and trust among Ukrainians.
Russia News
Ukraine’s military intelligence reported that two diesel locomotives were destroyed in Russia recently, one in Orenburg on April 28 and another in Vladikavkaz on April 26. Both incidents, attributed to “unknown persons,” have not been officially linked to Kyiv. However, Ukraine’s military intelligence suggested that such actions could impair Russian logistical capabilities. Russian authorities have not yet responded to these incidents.
The UK’s Armed Forces Minister Leo Docherty reported on April 27 that Russia has sustained 450,000 casualties since February 2022, including significant losses of tanks, armored vehicles, aircraft, and naval vessels. US intelligence and Russian opposition sources provided lower casualty estimates in previous reports. Despite these losses, Russia continues its offensive in Ukraine, drawing on reserves and facing equipment limitations, while its military’s combat effectiveness declines. Russia persists in the conflict, banking on its larger manpower and material resources.
In an escalation of actions against journalists, Russian authorities have arrested Konstantin Gabov and Sergey Karelin, accusing them of involvement with “extremist organization” activities through their association with the NavalnyLIVE YouTube channel, linked to the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Gabov, who has contributed to Reuters and is a correspondent for Deutsche Welle, faces charges for preparing media content and is detained until June 27. Karelin, with a history of work for the Associated Press and Deutsche Welle, was arrested in Murmansk. Additionally, Forbes Russia journalist Sergey Mingazov is under house arrest, accused of spreading false information about the Russian military. These are not isolated incidents but part of a growing pattern of increased charges against those connected with opposition or foreign media, as reported by Mediazona. This trend underscores a crackdown by the Kremlin to stifle dissent, using “extremism” charges to limit journalistic freedom and suppress opposition voices within Russia.
Turkey is in talks with ExxonMobil for a big LNG deal to diversify energy. It could mean 2.5 million tons annually for 10 years. Turkey wants new sources as contracts with Russia and Iran end soon. Russia now supplies over 40% of Turkey’s gas, but tensions have led to halted business. Turkey’s exports to Russia dropped by 33.7% in Q1 2024.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian Ministry of Defense will start issuing electronic draft notices for the fall 2024 conscription cycle from November 1, as per a new government resolution. An electronic summons is considered served seven days after posting on the state services portal, and failure to respond within 20 days will lead to restrictions on passport issuance and business registration. The system will also track property, vehicle ownership, and foreign travel of those eligible for service. This move, an extension of practices from the spring 2024 cycle, is part of efforts to enforce conscription and target draft evasion.
Russian authorities have established a formal procedure to recruit individuals accused of criminal offenses into military service in Ukraine, offering them exemption from prosecution. According to Kommersant, this involves coordination between criminal investigators, prosecutors, and military commanders. Accused individuals receive a document detailing the possibility of criminal liability exemption in exchange for military service upon completion of their investigation. If the individual agrees and signs a military contract, the criminal case is suspended with the potential for termination, contingent upon military service completion and approval by the overseeing prosecutor and the commander of the respective military unit. This process leverages a rarely used legal provision, Article 398 of the Russian Criminal Code, which has seen increased application since the onset of the conflict. The implementation of this recruitment strategy is already underway in occupied Ukraine and regions of Russia close to the Ukrainian border, with plans to expand across Russia.
Zala Aero, a subsidiary of Kalashnikov Concern, reported that Russian forces have intensified their use of Izdeliye-51/52 loitering munitions in Ukraine, noting at least 500 deployments in the last three months observed through open-source footage. This follows a report of 1,000 uses over an earlier 18-month period. The munitions are primarily aimed at Ukrainian artillery, tanks, and light armored vehicles.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov falsely claimed that panic is spreading among Ukrainian frontline forces, aiming to stir unrest in Ukraine and exaggerate the success of Russian military operations to domestic audiences.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com